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<br />Monitoring Local Land Markets
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<br />By Gerritj. Knaap and Elisabeth Holler, AlCP
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<br />.How to protect open space, encourage redevelopment, and make the most of
<br />infrastructure investments by analyzing current and projected land-use patterns.
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<br />Recent advances in Geographic Information
<br />Systems (GIS) have allowed more local com-
<br />munities to analyze land-use patterns using
<br />recent and accurate data. Instead of send-
<br />. ing teams of interns to survey land uses par-
<br />cel by parcel, communities are able to use
<br />aerial photography, GIS layers, and links to
<br />parcel-based databases, such as a property
<br />appraiser's, to create detailed results. Such
<br />information can be a valuable tool to help
<br />communities implement smart growth poli- .
<br />cies, and ultimately prevent sprawl and inef-
<br />ficient use of public services.
<br />Smart approaches to controlling urban
<br />growth take three general forms:
<br />
<br />(1) greater use of prices, such as impact
<br />fees, system connection charges, and toll
<br />roads;
<br />
<br />(2) coordinated management of infrastruc-
<br />ture using concurrency requirements, inte-
<br />grated land-use and -transportation plans,
<br />and capital improvement programs; and
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<br />(3) more comprehensive use of land-use
<br />regulations, such as zoning and urban
<br />growth boundaries.
<br />While the first two approaches are
<br />firmly in the realm of pricing scarce
<br />resources, the third approach has the most
<br />potential to incorporate a community's
<br />vision for its future. Good.land-us~ deci-
<br />sions can preserve land for future genera-
<br />tions and provide a mix of uses that is con- .
<br />venient and valuable to the .community as a
<br />whole. As communities devote more time,
<br />attention, and effort to managing the use of
<br />land, many are finding they lack the basic
<br />information they need to do solid long-
<br />range planning. Most are aware that growth
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<br />management can be a two-edged sword: If
<br />communities open too much land to devel-
<br />opment, the resulting sprawl can be costly
<br />environmentally, socially, and financially.
<br />But if they too st~ngently limit the land
<br />available for development, demand can
<br />quickly exceed supply and force land and
<br />housing prices sharply higher. When com-
<br />munities are in a position of uncertain land
<br />supply, meaning no one knows if available
<br />
<br />Better information
<br />about a community's
<br />inventory of land can
<br />help identify the
<br />extent and
<br />characteristics of
<br />various land uses,
<br />including
<br />undeveloped land.
<br />
<br />land is sufficient to meet demand, the mar-
<br />ket cannot work efficiently and both public
<br />and private land development decisions
<br />become more risky.
<br />According to economists, this is a clas-
<br />sic "inventory problem." How much land
<br />should be primed and ready for develop-
<br />ment? Holding too much developable land
<br />creates costs of underutilized infrastructure,
<br />while holding too little bids up prices for
<br />land. A community's vision may also influ-
<br />ence availability of land. Decisions to allow
<br />
<br />development on a piece of land necessarily
<br />mean that less land is available for conser-
<br />vation, forestry, or agriculture. A historic
<br />farming community may not be willing to
<br />abandon farmland for houses, even if
<br />demand for housing is strong. Furthe'rmore,
<br />not all land is equally suitable for develop-
<br />ment: floodplains, steep slopes, or proxim-
<br />ity to undesirable uses can all influence the
<br />likelihood that a property will be developed.
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<br />THE NEED FOR LAND MARKET MONITORING
<br />Communities need a way to monitor how the
<br />land is.currently used, assess future
<br />demand, and take steps to assure the ade-
<br />quacy of future supply. Fortunately, there
<br />are now cost-effective, accessible tools
<br />available for almost any community to
<br />implement a land market monitoring sys-
<br />tem. Those that do so quickly discover that
<br />such a system can become a critical tool for
<br />comprehensive smart growth planning.
<br />Better infonmation about a commu-
<br />nity's inventory of land can help identify the
<br />extent and characteristics of various land
<br />uses, including undeveloped land. Over
<br />time, this data can be used to spot trends.
<br />Continuous monitoring of land absorption
<br />makes it possible, at any instant, to
<br />describe how much land is available for
<br />development.. how quickly it is annexed,
<br />subdivided, and developed, its selling price,
<br />and much more.
<br />Land market monitoring is the process
<br />of assessing and inventorying the supply of
<br />vacant land over time. To set up a land mar-
<br />ket monitoring system, planners can use
<br />aerial photography, GIS-based data, and
<br />parcel-based databases, such as the prop-
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<br />ZONINGPRACTICE 1.08
<br />AMERICAN PlANNING ASSOCIATION I page 2
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