Agenda - Council Work Session - 11/24/2009

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INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS Proposed and Planned Senior Housing Developments Maxfield Research conducted interviews with city planning staff to identify any proposed or planned senior housing developments that may satisfy some demand for independent senior housing products. The following points summarize findings from these interviews. . The third of eight phases of Grey Oaks senior condominiums in Andover is actively market- ing. Once complete, the project is expected to have a total of350 senior condominium units. . Two developers, Comforts of Home and Riverside Companies, are exploring the potential to build assisted living and memory care housing in Ramsey. Preliminary approval has been granted for Riverside Companies to build a 44-unit complex near the intersection of Bunker Lane and Highway 47; however, these plans are very preliminary and it is likely that the number of senior housing units in this project will increase to about 80 units. Both develop- ers are focusing on service-enhanced housing at this time, which does not meet the needs of independent seniors who are under consideration in this study. . Rum River District Condominiums in Anoka recently completed their first of four planned condominium buildings; this first phase has 22 units of age-restricted owner-occupied hous- ing. Subsequent phases include two buildings of general occupancy ownership housing (total of69 units) and a second building of age-restricted ownership housing (additional 18 units). Additional senior housing development is planned in the Secondary Market Area, including sev- eral projects in various stages in Blaine. However, we do not consider these projects to be com- petitive with a development in Ramsey due to their locations. Further, many ofthe projects are planned to be service-intensive, which caters to a more frail population than independent senior housing that is being considered in this analysis. Summary of Independent Senior Housing Market Analysis The following points summarize principle findings from our analysis of independent senior hous- ing market conditions: · The senior housing inventory included eleven independent senior housing communities with a total of nearly 700 units. Excluding communities that are still in the initial marketing or lease-up period, the vacancy rates by product type are as follows: ~ Market rate active adult rental 0.0% ~ Market rate congregate rental 5.8% ~ Affordable active adult rental 1.3% ~ Subsidized active adult rental 0.0% . Since market rate independent housing is less need-driven than more service-intensive senior housing projects, many independent senior housing communities across the Metro Area ar observing increasing vacancy rates as seniors find that they are unable or unwilling t MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.