Agenda - Council Work Session - 11/24/2009

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HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS Introduction Earlier sections of this report assessed the market potential for workforce and senior housing in Ramsey based on evaluations of medium and high-density zoned parcels, demographic, eco- nomic and competitive market factors. This section of the report forecasts demand for multi- family housing products in Ramsey, including demand for for-sale and rental general occupancy and senior housing units. Demand is calculated over the next five years, 2009 to 2014. Workforce Housing Needs Analysis Table HN-l presents demand calculations for general occupancy multifamily housing, including both for-sale and rental housing products, in the Ramsey Market Area between 2009 and 2014. The following points summarize the demand methodology: · According to revised growth estimates, Ramsey is forecast to add 1,400 households between 2009 and 2014. Since household growth translates to new housing units demanded, this a key figure in estimating total housing demand in an area. We also estimate that should at- tractive housing be available in Ramsey, 25% of household growth in the remainder of the Primary Market Area and 10% of household growth in the Secondary Market area would choose housing products in Ramsey. Together, household growth in Ramsey and portions of growth in the remainder of the PMA and SMA totals potential housing demand for 1,914 units. · Senior households are forecast to be a driving force of housing demand due to the distribu- tion of the area's demographics. These households do not comprise the primary market for workforce housing and therefore, we include only the portion of household growth that is es- timated to drive demand for general occupancy housing. Based on our analysis of the area's demographics and current trends, we apply a 65% rate to the total housing demand potential to calculate demand for 1,244 general occupancy housing units over the next five years. Sen- ior housing demand is calculated separately beginning in table HN-2. · We estimate that approximately 30% of household growth will be income-qualified for work- force housing. The basis for this percentage is the workforce housing income-qualification for a three-person household according to MHF A, which is $60,400 annual income, or 80% . AMI. The calculations show demand for 373 workforce housing units over the next five years. · Demand is apportioned between owner- and renter-occupied housing products. Information on household tenure by income was evaluated from the U.S. Census Bureau as a basis for the distribution between owner- and renter-occupied housing products. Additionally, we consid- ered the portion of the income-qualified market that would be able to afford for-sale housing. Approximately 45% of workforce housing demand will be for new owner-occupied units, 35% for new renter-occupied units and the remaining for single-family homes or existing housing units. Demand for 168 owner-occupied and 131 renter-occupied housing units i calculated. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.