Agenda - Council Work Session - 11/24/2009

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HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS . Since there are no proposed affordable rental housing projects that are certain as of October 2009, total demand for affordable rental housing is calculated for 131 units between 2009 and 2014. Active Adult Senior Housing Needs Analysis Table HN-2 through Table HN-4 present demand calculations for market rate, affordable and subsidized adult/few-service senior housing in the PMA (Ramsey, Anoka, Andover, Oak Grove and Nowthen). The following points outline the demand methodology for each housing product. Market Rate Active Adult Housing Needs Analysis Table HN2 presents our demand calculations for active adult market rate housing in the Primary Ramsey Market Area in 2009 and 2014. . The market for active adult housing is comprised of older adult (age 55 to 64), younger sen- ior (age 65 to 74) and older senior (age 75+) households in the PMA. In order to arrive at the potential age-, income- and asset-qualified base for active adult housing, we include all age- qualified households with incomes of $35,000 or more plus homeowner households with in- comes between $25,000 and $34,999 who would qualify with the proceeds from a home sale. The number of qualifying homeowner households is estimated by applying the appropriate homeownership rate, as identified in Table D-6, to each age cohort. In 2009, there are an es- timated 7,616 age-, income- and asset-qualified households in the PMA that comprise the market for active adult housing. · Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of households "age 55 to 64, 6.5% of households age 65 to 74, and 17.0% of households age 75 and older) re- sults in a demand potential for 320 active adult housing units in 2009. We also account for an additional portion of seniors (20%) who currently reside outside the PMA but may choose a project in Ramsey. Total demand is calculated for 400 market rate active adult units in 2009. · Demand fer active adult housing is apportioned between ownership and rental product types. Based onthe age distribution of the area's population, homeownership rates and current trends for senior ownership product inthe Metro Area, we project that 60% of the demand will be for owner-occupied active adult housing (240 units), and the remaining 40% of de- mand will be for renter-occupied active adult housing units (160 units). . The existing supply of active adult housing satisfies some of the housing needs in the City. After subtracting the existing units from the demand potential (at market equilibrium, or 98% occupancy for for-sale housing and 95% occupancy for rental housing), we find excess de- mand for 130 owner-occupied units and 106 renter-occupied units in 2009. . No single site can capture all of the demand in a market area. Based on our analysis oft quality of housing sites available in Ramsey, we estimate that 30% oftotal demand MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.