Agenda - Council Work Session - 11/24/2009

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HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS tions. Hence, the capture rate among each age group is higher than for market rate housing. Capture rates are employed at 20% for all age- and income-qualified households in the PMA. . Draw Area: Seniors in need based situations are often more willing to relocate in order to find housing that meets their needs. With the significant pent-up demand for subsidized housing and the low occupancy rate at affordable projects in the PMA, it is likely that a de- velopment in Ramsey could draw a greater percentage from households residing outside the Primary Market Area. Demand generated from senior households residing outside the PMA is increased to 30%. . Product Tvpe: Based on the distribution of household income in the City and patterns among seniors who need subsidized or affordable housing, we estimate that 65% of the total demand will be for subsidized housing and the remaining 35% will be for affordable housing. To calculate excess demand, we deduct the existing subsidized and affordable senior housing units from the demand potential at market equilibrium (95% occupancy). Excess demand in the PMA is calculated for 49 subsidized senior housing units and 76 affordable senior housing units in 2009. Ofthis excess demand, we estimate that 45% of demand for subsidized housing and 40% of de- mand for affordable housing could be captured on a high-quality site in Ramsey. Demand is calculated for 22 subsidized units and 30 affordable units on a high-quality site in Ramsey in 2009. Adjusting for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes up to $39,999 would be candi- dates for fmancially-assisted independent housing in 2014. We reduce the potential market by homeowner households earning between $30,000 and $39,999 that would exceed income- restrictions once equity from their home sales is converted to monthly income. Following the same methodology, demand is forecast to increase to 70 subsidized units and 53 affordable units on a high-quality site in Ramsey through 2014. Demand Summary Located on the following page, Table HN-4 provides a summary of demand by product type in the City of Ramsey between 2009 and 2014. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.