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4. PRO~CTION COMPARISONS To test the reasonableness of the general aviation operations projections, the projections of this analysis were compazed to the projections in the recently completed FAA forecast for the Minneapolis-St. Paul hub. As shown in Table II-14, the projections for the reliever system compaze favorably with the FAA projections. The average annual growth rate was the same for total system operations (2.1 percent), and individual growth rates were similar for four of the airports. The remaining growth rates differed in such a way that further analysis was required. For Airlake, the FAA projected annual operations to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent, while this study showed only a 2.4 percent annual growth rate. The difference in these growth rates can be accounted for by examining the historical base from which the projections were derived. The FAA projections aze based on a 19861eve1 of 29,600 operations. In 1987 and 1988, the historical data available for this study show 30.0 and 23.1 percent growth rates, respectively. Therefore, this study based its projections on an actual 1988 level of 64,000 operations. The lower FAA base year level enables a higher growth rate to be used to achieve similar overall end results. In this analysis, Lake Elmo and South St. Paul airports were projected to grow at annual rates well above the FAA's growth rate (2.1 percent and 2.8 percent versus 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively). Similaz to the case of Airlake, some of the difference can be explained by examining the available historical base. In the case of Lake Elmo, the 1988 operations total had already exceeded the FAA's 2008 projections. This strong growth in recent years supports a stronger growth rate than the one implied in the FAA projections. In the case of South St. Paul, a decrease in annual operations between 1986 and 1988 allowed a high growth rate to be used, so that projected operations might reach a volume similaz to the one projected by the FAA II-36