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The projections of general aviation operations at Minneapolis-St. Paul International, <br />as produced for the FAA hub forecasts, show a more significant decrease than the decrease <br />projected in this analysis. The driving factor behind these decreases, from the FAA's <br />perspective, appears to be a gradual elimination of local operations, as well as reductions <br />in itinerant operations. While the last two years have shown a decrease in local operations <br />at the airport, total elimination of local operations does not appear imminent. A shift <br />toward more itinerant operations is probable and the projections in this study reflect that <br />shift as it relates to the projection of a wnstant number of based aircraft. <br />While some differences do exist in the individual airport projections, the consistenry <br />in the total projections supports the reasonableness of the reliever system plan projections. <br />It is important to note that the projections developed for this study represent <br />unconstrained demand projections. These projections were subject to further refinement <br />as a result of the study's airside and landside demand capacity analyses. A forecast <br />refinement, which reflects possible intrasystem diversion, was undertaken as part of the <br />development of the recommended system. In the case of Minneapolis-St. Paul International, <br />results of the registrant and transient pilot surveys have indicated that a transfer of general <br />aviation demand to the relievers is possible. <br />5: PR07ECTION SUMMARY <br />A summary of the projections developed for this study is provided in Table II-15. <br />As noted, these constrained demand projections were subject to further refinement based <br />on subsequent study analyses and recommendations. <br /> <br />II-38 <br />