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For diversion between airports to occur, it was assumed that the two airports could not be more than an estimated 15-minute travel distance from each other. The other key assumption for diversion to occur is that the attracting airport will need to have adequate facilities (runway length, fueling, maintenance services, storage, auto pazking, etc). St. Paul Downtown would need to divert 55 based aircraft for demand to equal 80 percent of capacity by the end of the planning period.. Study committee members felt that the most likely candidate for diversion of these based aircraft is Lake Elmo. Most of the diversion from St. Paul Downtown would consist of light single- and twin-engine aircraft because turboprop and jet aircraft aze more demanding, requiring longer runways. To make Lake Elmo more attractive to the aircraft based at St. Paul Downtown, it is recommended that Runway 3/21 be extended 1,000 feet. This will give Lake Elmo an ultimate length of 3,500 feet on its nonprecision approach runway, thereby enabling it to accommodate most of the single- and twin-engine fleet likely to divert from St. Paul Downtown. As previously mentioned, diversion could also occur between Anoka County- Blaine and a new general aviation airport in Search Area "A". While this analysis focused on diverting aircraft until 80 percent of operational capacity was reached, it is possible that a new general aviation airport could attract even more than the 29,000 projected diverted operations. Actual diversion will depend on the location of the new airport, access, and the perceptions of azea aircraft owners. IV-61