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1 ~,f~TDlIUl1T iTAN ARFA RF(7TC'T'RRFr) AIRC'RAFT' PROJECTIONS <br />A two-step process was used to prepare the projections of metropolitan azea <br />registered aircraft.' The Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan azea includes Anoka, Carver, <br />Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington counties. First, four independent <br />projections were developed. The methodologies used to develop these projections aze as <br />follows: <br />,Cocioeconomic Re e¢r scion -The socioeconomic regression methodology is <br />based on an assumed causal relationship between particulaz socioeconomic <br />factors, such as population or personal income, and a particulaz element of <br />aviation demand. For this methodology, the socioeconomic data are related <br />via regression analysis to historical activity. The resulting set of regression <br />equations, coupled with independent projections of future socioeconomic data, <br />produces a projection of aviation activity. <br />Historical Trend Analysic_ - An historical trend analysis is derived as a function <br />of historical aviation activity as it relates to time. Historical levels of aviation <br />. activity aze examined and projected via time series analysis, which is a function <br />of simple linear regression analysis where time is the independent variable. <br />Similar to the socioeconomic regression methodology, the resulting equations <br />aze used as the projection equations. <br />Per capita Ownership -The per capita ownership methodology measures the <br />ratio of registered aircraft to the system population. It is similar to the <br />regression analysis, with population as the independent variable, but provides <br />added insight that regression cannot identify. Regression analysis identifies <br />similaz trends in the independent and dependent variables. Per capita analysis <br />can do the same, but can-also identity differing trends that are typified by a <br />constantly increasing or decreasing market shazes. <br />Market Share -The market share methodology calculates historical mazket <br />shazes of aviation activity and projects these shazes into future timeframes. <br />This projection method reflects demand based on national aviation trends and <br />may include increasing, constant, or decreasing future market shazes. A <br />constant market share methodology is used by the Federal Aviation <br />Administration to develop its Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs). <br />=The member of registered aircraft reflects the number of aircraft owned and registered <br />within as area. The number of based aircraft reflects aircraft actually stored at an area <br />airport, regazdtess of the owner's place of residenx. <br />II-2 <br />