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3, ATRCRAFi' ACTIVITY PROJECTIONS . Annual activity data for the system airports were provided by the Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) as well as the respective airport managers. Operations totals for Minneapolis-St. Paul International, Crystal, Flying Cloud, and St. Paul Downtown airports represent actual tower counts. The remaining annual totals are estimates. Available historical annual operations data are presented in Table II-8. (1) Annual poem ions Annual general aviation operations at the reliever system airports were projected using the operations per based aircraft (OPBA) methodology. In this methodology, the projected number of based aircraft is multiplied by an appropriate OPBA ratio to yield projected annual general aviation aircraft operations. The OPBA ratios were developed using historical information, as well as FAA projections of general aviation hours flown and active general aviation aircraft. Using the historical based aircraft and annual operations data, an historical set of OPBA ratios was developed (see Table II-9). With the exception of South St. Paul and Minneapolis-St. Paul International airports, each of the system airports has experienced a net increase in OPBA since 1984. The range of increases varied. Airlake experienced the smallest net increase of 41 OPBA, while St. Paul Downtown had the largest increase - 181 OPBA. The calculated OPBA ratios are consistent with OPBA ratios ated by MAC in a 1987 study. Projections of annual operations are presented in Table II-10. Based on the FAA's projection that general aviation activity will recover and begin to grow in the 1990s, the OPBA ratio was increased for all of the reliever airports. The average annual growth rates for those ratios ranged from a low of 0.73 percent for Lake Elmo to a high of 1.69 percent for South St. Paul The average annual growth rate for all relievers .vas 1.29 percent, which compares favorably with the rate at which II-19