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Chapter 3. DEMAND/CAPACITY ANALYSIS 26. General. Demand/capacity analysis is an es- sential step in the development of a master plan for the individual airport. It provides basic information for determination of facility requirements and eco- nomic feasibility. The study of the demand/capacity relationship will result in a requirement for the the- oretical expansion of facilities and the cost of those improvements can then be related to revenues and to savings which will be realized by passengers, cargo handlers, and aircraft operators due to reductions in delay. This type of analysis should be applied to air- craft operations versus airfield improvements; to pas- senger enplanements versus terminal building improve- ments; to cargo tonnage versus cargo facility development; to airport access traffic versus access roads and rapid transit facilities; and to other im- provements as may be appropriate. Airspace in the vicinity of the master plan airport should also be analyzed. Demand/capacity analysis should be ap- plied to short, intermediate, and long-range develop- ments (approximately 5, 10, and 20 years) . In the case of large, complicated airports, it may be bene- cial to subject demand/capacity analysis to computer simulation. Demand is based on forecasts developed in accord- ance with guidance set forth in Chapter 2. Capacity and the demand/capacity relationship should be estab- lished in accordance with the following guidance. 27. Limitations of Demand/Capacity Anal- ysis. It should be kept in mind throughout the demand/capacity analysis that only approximations will be obtained for facility requirements, their costs, and savings which will result from reduced delays to airport users as well as anticipated revenues which may be obtained from proposed improvements. Thus demand/capacity analysis will yield preliminary esti- mates of number and configuration of runways, areas of apron, numbers of vehicle parking spaces, and capacities of airport access facilities. Preliminary estimates of economic feasibility may also be obtained. These approximations will provide a basis for devel- oping the details of the airport master plan and for determining the feasibility of improvements considered therein. The development of these details will follow from demand/capacity analysis and should be per- formed in accordance with guidance offered in subse- quent chapters and as dictated by the planner's imagination and understanding of airport design cri- teria. Demand/capacity study is an analytical tool and in no way should it be considered a substitute for creative design. 28. Aircraft Operational Requirements. The forecasts of aviation activity will indicate the kinds of aircraft which will use the master plan airport, The frequency of use, passenger/cargo load factors, and haul lengths will also be indicated. From this demand data, the planner can ascertain the required physical dimensions of the aircraft operational areas. While a capacity analysis provides requirements in terms of numbers of runways/taxiways, etc., the analysis of aircraft operational requirements allows for the deter- mination of runway/taxiway/apron dimensions and lateral clearances between airport areas. Airport op- erational requirements will be determined in accord- ance with guidance listed in Chapter 4. Consultation with the airlines and the general aviation community is essential in verifying forecast equipment usage and in ascertaining user plans. Guidance on all facets of airport development related to aircraft operational re- quirements is contained in FAA advisory circulars (AC 150/5300 series). The National Airport System Plan will also prove helpful in ascertaining general development requirements. 29. Capacity Analysis. An analysis of the existing air traffic capacity of the area the master plan airport is to serve will help to determine how much additional capacity will be required at the master plan airport. Four distinct elements require investigation, namely: the airfield, the terminal area, the airspace, and surface access. The maximum ca- pacity achievable will depend on the capacity limita- tions in any of these four elements. After determining the airfield, terminal area, and airspace capacity, and those airports most likely to be retained in the system, the forecasted demand is im- posed on the system, and the additional capacity re- quired for the master plan airport is determined. The 15