Agenda - Economic Development Authority - 01/10/2013

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Retail Leakage/Surplus Analysis 2008 Methodology Supply Side Estimates The basis for the supply side sales estimates is the Census of Retail Trade conducted by the economic census, a division of the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail Store Type Supply: The source of this data is the Census of Retail Trade (CRT). The CRT data is a survey of retail store sales, employment, and wages. Since this is a survey done once every five years, survey results combined with employment and wage data from the Quarterly Census from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are used to update the estimates annually. A national level business database is then used to allocate county level data down to low levels of geography (Census Block Groups) resulting in Block Group level sales estimates by North American Industry Classification code (NAICS). NAICS code translates into retail store type. Merchandise Line Item Supply: The source of this data is the Census of Retail Trade (CRT). The CRT data is a survey of retail store sales, employment, and wages. Since this is a survey done once every five years, survey results combined with employment and wage data from the Quarterly Census from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are used to update the estimates annually. A national level business database is then used to allocate county level data down to low levels of geography (Census Block Groups) resulting in Block Group level sales estimates by North American Industry Classification code (NAICS). NAICS code only identifies the kind of store type, not exactly what is sold. So the NAICS are then broken down to Merchandise Line Items using proportions derived from census data. The Merchandise Line Item results from aggregating those values after the proportions are applied to each retail store type which has some percentage of sales of that line item. Demand Side Estimates The basis for the demand side estimates is the Consumer Expenditure Survey issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Consumer Expenditure Survey collects household expenditure information on over 350 expenditure items. Retail Store Type Demand: The source of this data is the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). This is a survey of households and what they buy in terms of line items, not necessarily where the items are purchased. CEX expenditure categories are mapped to Merchandise Line Items. This gives us potential expenditures for Merchandise Line Items by geographic area regardless of where the consumers make their purchases. The Merchandise Line Items are then allocated into NAICS categories using ratios estimated from the CRT. This operation is like a reverse operation to the method of turning Retail Store Type sales into Merchandise Line Items for the purposes of estimating "Merchandise Line Item Supply." Merchandise Line Item Demand: The source of this data is the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). This is a survey of households and what they buy in terms of line items, not necessarily where the items are purchased. CEX expenditure categories are mapped to Merchandise Line Items. This gives us potential expenditures for Merchandise Line Items by geographic area regardless of where the consumers make their purchases. Buton® IDavitying Customers