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households for 2013 through 2035 are shown in the first column of Table 4-18. These estimates
<br />are based on households for the Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County counted in the 2010
<br />Census. Future household estimates are based on the State Demographer's 2012 population
<br />estimates adjusted to reflect average household size contained in the State Demographer's 2008
<br />estimate of population and households. This results in a 2013 estimated 1,194,278 households in
<br />the Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County. Future stabilized household growth is about 20
<br />percent lower than past projections. Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County households are
<br />estimated to increase to 1,226,189 in 2015, followed by an increase to 1,300,152 households in
<br />2020. The rate of household growth slows after each five-year period.
<br />Table 4-18
<br />HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2012 TO 2035
<br />SEVEN -COUNTY METROPOLITAN AREA PLUS SHERBURNE COUNTY, NORTH GROWTH CORRIDOR,
<br />NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREA, RAM SEY STATION DRAW AREA, AND RAM SEY
<br />Year
<br />2013
<br />2014
<br />2015
<br />2016
<br />2017
<br />2018
<br />2019
<br />2020
<br />2021
<br />2022
<br />2023
<br />2024
<br />2025
<br />2026
<br />2027
<br />2028
<br />2029
<br />2030
<br />2031
<br />2032
<br />2033
<br />2034
<br />2035
<br />Total
<br />Metropolitan Area
<br />plus Sherburne County
<br />Households Increase
<br />1,194,278
<br />1,210,128
<br />1,226,189
<br />1,240,637
<br />1,255,255
<br />1,270,046
<br />1,285,011
<br />1,300,152
<br />1,313,020
<br />1,326,015
<br />1,339,138
<br />1,352,392
<br />1,365,777
<br />1,378,099
<br />1,390,532
<br />1,403,077
<br />1,415,736
<br />1,428,508
<br />1,440,141
<br />1,451,868
<br />1,463,690
<br />1,475,609
<br />1,487,625
<br />Source McComb Group, Ltd
<br />15,643
<br />15,850
<br />16,061
<br />14,448
<br />14,618
<br />14,791
<br />14,965
<br />15,141
<br />12,868
<br />12,995
<br />13,124
<br />13,253
<br />13,385
<br />12,322
<br />12,433
<br />12,545
<br />12,659
<br />12,773
<br />11,632
<br />11,727
<br />11,823
<br />11,919
<br />12,016
<br />308,990
<br />North Growth Corridor
<br />Market Northstar Corridor
<br />Share Draw Area
<br />16.5% Percent HHs
<br />2,581 91.0 % 2,349
<br />2,615 91.0 2,380
<br />2,650 91.0 2,412
<br />2,384 91.0 2,169
<br />2,412 91.0 2,195
<br />2,440 91.0 2,221
<br />2,469 92.0 2,272
<br />2,498 92.0 2,298
<br />2,123 92.0 1,953
<br />2,144 92.0 1,973
<br />2,165 92.0 1,992
<br />2,187 92.0 2,012
<br />2,208 92.0 2,032
<br />2,033 92.0 1,870
<br />2,051 92.0 1,887
<br />2,070 92.0 1,904
<br />2,089 92.0 1,922
<br />2,108 92.0 1,939
<br />1,919 92.0 1,766
<br />1,935 92.0 1,780
<br />1,951 92.0 1,795
<br />1,967 92.0 1,809
<br />1,983 92.0 1,824
<br />50,983 46,754
<br />Ramsey Station
<br />Draw Area
<br />Households
<br />Percent HHs
<br />23.0 %
<br />23.0
<br />23.0
<br />23.0
<br />23.0
<br />23.0
<br />23.0
<br />23.0
<br />24.0
<br />24.0
<br />24.0
<br />24.0
<br />24.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />25.0
<br />540
<br />547
<br />555
<br />499
<br />505
<br />511
<br />522
<br />529
<br />469
<br />473
<br />478
<br />483
<br />488
<br />468
<br />472
<br />476
<br />480
<br />485
<br />441
<br />445
<br />449
<br />452
<br />456
<br />Ramsey
<br />Percent HHs
<br />65.0 % 351
<br />65.0 356
<br />65.0 361
<br />65.0 324
<br />65.0 328
<br />65.0 332
<br />65.0 340
<br />65.0 344
<br />65.0 305
<br />65.0 308
<br />65.0 311
<br />65.0 314
<br />65.0 317
<br />65.0 304
<br />65.0 307
<br />65.0 309
<br />65.0 312
<br />65.0 315
<br />65.0 287
<br />65.0 289
<br />65.0 292
<br />65.0 294
<br />65.0 296
<br />11,223 7,295
<br />Over the past 20 years, the North Growth Corridor has captured an average of 15.4 percent of
<br />Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County growth with a higher growth rate of 17.5 percent
<br />during the housing boom. In the future, it's estimated that the North Growth Corridor will
<br />capture about 16.5 percent of the Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County new households.
<br />Assuming that the North Growth Corridor will capture 16.5 percent of the increased growth,
<br />similar to the past, the estimated household growth in 2013 would be about 2,581 households.
<br />The Northstar Corridor Draw Area segment of the North Growth Corridor has maintained a
<br />relatively stable share of North Growth Corridor households, averaging 90.9 percent over the
<br />past 20 years. In the next six years, 2013 to 2018, Northstar Corridor Draw Area market share is
<br />estimated at 91.0 percent, increasing to 92.0 percent in 2019 and beyond. Northstar cities market
<br />share of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has been declining due to slowing development in the
<br />4-21
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