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m. RELIEVER FORECASTS <br /> <br />1. APPROACH <br /> <br />The forecasts developed for the Regional System Reliever Airports Study were <br />prepared through a series of interrelated steps: <br /> <br /> Area aircraft registrants were determined. <br /> <br /> Area registrants were transferred into area based aircraft. <br /> <br /> Area based aircraft were assigned to reliever system airports using <br /> current market shares. <br /> <br />METHODOLOGY <br /> <br />To project area aircraft registrants for the metropolitan area (Anoka, Carver, <br />Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington counties), four <br />me.thodologies were explored: <br /> <br />Socioeconomic Regression <br />Historical Trend <br />Per Capita Ownership <br />Market Share <br /> <br />A preferred projection of area aircraft registrants was developed using the per <br />capita ownership and the market share projection methodologies: <br /> <br /> Year <br />Ctm'ent 1988 <br /> <br />Forecast <br /> <br />Preferred Area Registrants Projection <br /> 2,714 <br /> <br />1993 2,811 <br />1998 2,915 <br />2003 3;029 <br />2008 3,146 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />BASED AIRCRAFT ASSIGNkIENT <br /> <br />The share of based aircraft for system airports as a percentage of area <br />registered aircraft has ranged between 73 and 78 percent. The number of <br /> <br />-7- <br /> <br /> <br />