Agenda - Council Work Session - 10/29/2013

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are as follows: Year (2030) Households 15,900 Population 42,500 Employment 12,050 There could be a number of factors that have led to the revised forecasts, including previous economic conditions, changes in regional policies, changes to model assumptions and software, etc. Staff has included a number of presentations prepared by the Metropolitan Council as background on demographics and assumptions that framed the initial preparation of the preliminary forecasts. Staff is attending a Local Officials Workshop on Tuesday, October 29, 2013 to better understand the policies, assumptions, and technical components that went into the forecast model. Until those factors are better understood, it may be premature to develop an official/final Statement of Policy related to the forecasts. Staff has prepared a document to serve as a response. This is a preliminary draft to frame discussion. The discussion this evening is to better understand the policy direction of the City to refine this document. Responses to the preliminary forecasts are due by December 1, 2013. Following that date, the model will be re -calibrated and re -run. At that time, the forecasts will be sent for official comments by local communities. The City could host a process similar to what was used to develop the Future Land Use Map for the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update to help formulate a portion of the City's forecast recommendations (total capacity). This would focus on the mapping exercise that was completed at the end of that process. However, it would be unlikely that this process could be completed by the December 1 deadline. This could be completed during the official comment period, however. During the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update process completed during 2008-2010, a major comment was in regards to the growth forecasts appearing to be too aggressive and not reflective of the true market. Additionally, some participants felt that the forecasts were driving the development of the Future Land Use Map, versus the Future Land Use Map helping to inform the process of developing the forecasts. However, at that time, the City was unable to adjust forecasts as low as originally desired, as the forecasts had already been adopted in advance of the Comprehensive Plan Update process. This is a key factor as to why the City should remain involved in this current forecast development process. The most recent City documents that addressed growth forecasts were the 2012 Comprehensive Sanitary Sewer and Water Studies. These studies acknowledged that the current forecasts would not be experienced due to the economic conditions at that time. These Studies assumed an average, flat -rate household growth of 260 new households per year. This assumption was a simple assumption, using a combination of historical average growth rates and previous comprehensive plan assumptions. In comparison, the preliminary 2040 forecasts would be an average growth rate of 150 households per year. NOTE: Staff is not assuming a linear growth rate; these averages are used for illustrative/comparison purposes only. Before making a recommendation as to what forecast is most appropriate for Ramsey, Staff would like to finish the meeting with the Metropolitan Council on October 29, 2013. At that time, Staff will forward a recommendation to the November Planning Commission Meeting. The alternatives for recommendation include the following: 1. Metropolitan Council Preliminary 2040 Forecasts as presented 2. Existing City of Ramsey Forecasts (2012) 3. In Between Metropolitan Council Preliminary 2040 Forecasts and Existing City of Ramsey Forecasts (2012) 4. Other It is noted that, regardless of what the official forecast becomes, the City does have the ability to request a Comprehensive Plan Amendment if actual growth experienced exceeds the forecasted amount. In addition, as noted above, it appears that the Metropolitan Council will honor the total capacity of households, population, and employment from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan (existing). However, if it is going to be the policy of the City that