Agenda - Parks and Recreation Commission - 04/10/2014

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City of Ramsey 2030 Comprehensive Plan Chapter 3: Community Background Table 3-4 Household History and Forecasts Actual Estimate Forecasts* 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Ramsey 647 2,660 3,620 5,906 7,198 10,900 16,200 16,500 increase x 311.13% 36.09% 63.15% 21.88% 51.43% 48.62% 1.85% Anoka 39,668 60,716 82,437 106,428 117,409 135,670 157,760 168,690 Co. increase x 53.06% 35.77% 29.10% 10.32% 15.55% 16.28% 6.93% Household growth, like population growth, grew rapidly in the 1970s though 1990s. As Table 3-4 demonstrates, household growth in Ramsey occurred at a faster pace than household growth in Anoka County as a whole. This growth is expected to continue through 2030, although more recent projections have been made that are somewhat lower, based on the economic downturn starting in 2006, and on the City's land use plan developed by the community. These are detailed later in this Plan. As with population growth, household growth will slow by 2030 as the city reaches a fully developed stage. Anoka County's growth will occur at a faster rate between 2030 due to additional land areas beyond the City of Ramsey available for development. Market Analysis and Overview As part of the background information for the Comprehensive Plan a market analysis and overview was undertaken to look at the market conditions affecting residential and commercial -industrial land uses in Ramsey. The full analysis is included in Appendix A. As the city formulates land use strategies for the future these market -related numbers can be used to compare how well the city is matching the anticipated demand for various land uses. Regional Growth Characteristics Related to Residential Development Housing markets can vary greatly from one community to another within a large metropolitan region such as the Twin Cities. The forces that determine what type of housing gets built, how much housing gets built, and where that housing gets built can change dramatically from decade to decade or even year to year, often resulting in vastly different development experiences for individual communities such as Ramsey. Nonetheless, metropolitan regions are, by definition, interconnected places. Any long-term projections of the housing market at a local level must first be viewed with an understanding of historical housing market trends at the metropolitan level. The 16 -county region that incorporates the Twin Cities has grown steadily from 1960 to 2000 and is projected to continue its steady rate of growth through 2030. Figure 3-3 indicates that in 1960 there were just over 500,000 households in the 16 -county region. By 2030 it is projected that the region will contain over 1.7 million households. City of Ramsey 2030 Comprehensive Plan 3-6