Agenda - Council - 06/28/2016 - Laserfiche WebLink

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ANOKA COUNTY HOUSING STUDY CONCLUSIONS After calculating the number of age- and income -qualified seniors for different housing products, specific market penetration and capture rates are applied to each age cohort in order to quantify the demand potential for various housing products. We consider the following factors when assigning appropriate penetration and capture rates across the age cohorts and for various housing products: • Anoka County household incomes, household tenure, and home values in comparison to other Metro Area communities; • Metro -wide penetration and capture rates and comparisons to other geographies that are similar to Anoka County; • Existing competitive inventory of senior housing communities, including the age of existing facilities, absorption of new product, and overall market performance; • Information made available from surveys with senior housing communities, including draw patterns and resident profiles; and • Statistical information from reputable sources about the percentage of seniors by age cohort who reside in senior housing alternatives and for what length of time. Lastly, in addition to demand being generated by within Anoka County, we also account for a percentage of demand (approximately 15%) that results from the positive net movement of seniors to Anoka County from other areas of the State or Nation. The locations of adult caregivers, quality and accessibility of healthcare services and retail, community orientation patterns, personal preferences, and quality and availability of senior housing alternatives in Anoka County will all aid in attracting seniors from outside the County. The figure below displays a summary of demand calculations for various senior housing products in Anoka County in 2020. Demand figures are presented as excess demand and include both unmet demand as of 2010 and demand generate from household growth in senior aged Anoka County Excess Senior Housing Demand 2020 Senior Housing Demand 4 405 I Senior Rental I { 3.605 Sub/Aff MR Adult Congl egate AL MC 445 1,040 1,080I 570 470 cohorts from 2010 to 2010. Senior Housing Demand Adjusted for Migration Senior Ownership 800 The second step of our analysis accounts for the migration patterns of seniors between communities by applying a rigorous analysis of the locations to which seniors in a given submarket will move. First, we employ our demand methodology by submarket to calculate the demand being generated by the senior populations in each submarket. After these figures have been calculated, we assign capture rates to each submarket to calculate the net movement of MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 110