Agenda - Planning Commission - 09/01/2016

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Chapter IV NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS This chapter summarizes the current residential market conditions in the MSA and along the Northstar Corridor. Residential market conditions are analyzed to provide a framework for identifying viable residential development options at the Ramsey Station. RESIDENTIAL MARKET There were over 156,000 new housing units permitted in the MSA between 2000 and 2011, as shown in Table 4-1, which is an average of 13,058 units per year. Single family units comprised 45 percent of all the units permitted, while attached homes were 20 percent and multi-family units were 35 percent of the total units. Building permits peaked in 2003 at 21,283 units and declined steadily to 4,290 in 2009 before recovering to 5,725 units in 2010. There were 20,698 units permitted in Anoka County between 2000 and 2011, which was 13 percent of residential construction in the MSA. Sixty-three percent of the units permitted in Anoka County were single family homes and 26 percent were townhomes and duplexes. Only 11 percent were multi-family units including both condos and apartments. Building permits in Anoka County peaked at 3,336 units in 2004, one year later than the MSA, and declined steadily to 492 in 2009, a decline of 85 percent. Building permits recovered to 685 in 2010. Anoka County's market share of MSA building permits has held up well. Market share was 11 percent in 2000, increased to 16 percent in 2004, declined to 11 percent in 2008 and 2009, and then recovered to 12 percent in 2010. Sherburne County permitted 9,213 units over the past decade, which was six percent of the units permitted in the MSA. Units in Sherburne County were predominately single family units at 95 percent, with townhomes comprising two percent and multi-family units three percent of the total. Sherburne County building permits peaked in 2003 at 1,596 units and declined steadily to 89 units in 2009, a decline of 94 percent. Market share of MSA building permits ranged from six to seven percent between 2000 and 2006, and then declined to two percent in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. The Northstar Corridor communities permitted 8,909 housing units between 2000 and 2011, which is 5.7 percent of the MSA total, as shown in Table 4-2. Elk River and Ramsey permitted the most units between 2000 and 2011, with 2,662 and 2,413 units, respectively. Coon Rapids and Big Lake each permitted over 1,600 units. Fridley and Anoka permitted the least number of units, with 385 and 147 units, respectively. Ramsey permitted 2,413 units, which was 27.1 percent of the total units permitted in the corridor. Like the MSA as a whole, residential construction in the corridor communities dropped off sharply after 2006. 4-1