Agenda - Planning Commission - 09/01/2016

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Introduction Earlier sections of this report assessed the market potential for workforce and senior housing in Ramsey be examining the appropriateness of various sites for multifamily housing, growth trends and demographic characteristics of the Market Area population, and current market condi- tions for senior and general-occupancy multifamily housing. This section of the report forecasts demand for multifamily housing communities in Ramsey, including senior housing offering few services and for-sale and rental housing affordable to people with low- and moderate-incomes. Workforce Housing Demand Analysis Table 25 presents our housing demand calculations for general-occupancy multifamily housing (both for-sale and rental) in the Ramsey Market Area between 2005 and 2010 and the estimated number of units supportable in Ramsey during this period. The following points summarize our demand calculations. • The Market Area (PMA and SMA combined) is expected to grow by 9,675 households be- tween 2005 and 2010. Based on homeownership trends, we estimate that 85% of the new households will seek for-sale housing, resulting in demand for over 8,220 for-sale units and about 1,450 rental units. Based on demographic growth trends, current market conditions, and recent home construction trends, we estimate that 45% of for-sale demand will be for multifamily units—resulting in overall demand for 3,700 for-sale multifamily units. All of the demand for rental units would be in multifamily products. • We estimate that 90%to 95% of the for-sale multifamily demand will be for townhomes (about 3,300 to 3,500 units between 2005 and 2010). The remaining demand will be for be- tween 185 and 370 condominium units. • The demand figures in Table 25 are for the entire Market Area. Any one location, including Ramsey, can only capture a portion of the demand. Based on Ramsey's location within the Market Area, transportation patterns, land availability, and growth trends, we project that Ramsey could capture 25% of the Market Area's for-sale townhome demand and 15% of its condominium demand, and 20% of its rental demand. This equates to demand from the Market Area for 830 to 880 for-sale townhomes, 30 to 60 condominium units, and 290 rental units in Ramsey between 2005 and 2010. • There is a portion of the demand that will come from outside the Market Area. We estimate this to be about 15%. Including this demand from outside the Market Area, total demand in Ramsey is calculated for 980 to 1,030 for-sale townhome units, 35 to 65 condominium units, and about 340 rental units between 2005 and 2010. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 51