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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />ceeds from the sale of the home could produce an extra $630 per month that could be used <br />almost dollar for dollar for alternative housing. (This figure is calculated by subtracting mar- <br />keting costs, estimated at 7%, from the proceeds from the sale of the home and using the in- <br />terest income, estimated at 4%, toward monthly rent). <br />• Including households who would income -qualify with the proceeds from a home sale (those <br />households with incomes of between $15,000 and $25,000), we estimate the number of <br />age/income-qualified senior households in the PMA in 2005 at about 7,150, increasing to <br />about 9,4109 in 2010. <br />TABLE 26 <br />MARKET RATE "ADULT"/FEW-SERVICES SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br />RAMSEY PMA <br />2005 & 2010 <br />2010 <br />Age of Householder Age of Householder <br />55-64 65-74 75+ 55-64 65-74 75+ <br /># of Households in PMA w/ Incomes of $15,000 to $25,0001 158 279 364 186 343 406 <br />(times ) Homeownership Rate x 92% 82% 49% 92% 82% 49% <br />(equals) Potential Market = 145 229 178 171 281 199 <br />(plus) # of Households w/ Incomes of $25,000+1 + 4,208 1,637 755 5,524 2,310 924 <br />(equals)Total Potential Market Base = 4,353 1,866 933 = 5,695 2,591 1,123 <br />(times) Short -Term Capture Rate <br />(equals) Short -Term Demand Potential <br />Total Market Rate Demand Potential <br />(times) % for housing w/services & w/o services <br />(equals) Demand potential <br />x 0.5% 8.0% 12.0% x 0.5% 8.0% 12.0% <br />22 149 112 = 28 207 135 <br />= 283 = 371 <br />Owner Rental Owner Rental <br />x 60% x 40% x 60% x 40% <br />= 170 = 113 = 222 = 148 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside PMA (20%) + 42 + 28 + 56 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential <br />(minus) Existing/Pending Competitive Units <br />(equals) Excess Demand in PMA <br />(times) % of Demand Capturable by Ramsey <br />= 212 = 142 = 278 <br />- 76 <br />55 - 76 <br />= 136 = 87 = 202 <br />- 30% <br />(equals) Excess Demand in Ramsey <br />30% - 30% <br />26 61 <br />+ 37 <br />= 185 <br />- 55 <br />= 130 <br />- 30% <br />1 <br />= 39 <br />1 2010 income -qualified figures adjusted for inflation ($29,500 or more + homeowners w/ inc. of $23,500 - $29,500) <br />2 Rental units account for a 5% vacancy factor and include one -quarter of the congregate/optional-service units to account for <br />market overlap. <br />Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br />• Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates (ranging in 2005 from 0.5% of households age <br />55 to 64 to 12.0% of households age 75 and older) for each age cohort, results in local de- <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. <br />54 <br />