Comp Plan 1974-1977 FILE #1 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Co period. When the Urban Service Area expansion in this sector was delineated in the Development Framework, it was planned to be expanded by about one square mile in the City of Andover and two square miles in the City of Ramsay. Metropolitan Systems, especially for sewers and transportation, are being planned to accommodate this Urban Service Area expansion during 1981-90. The size of Ramsey's proposed Urban Service Area is not entirely consistent with the Development Framework Urban Service Area, but this is not a major concern. Ramsey's proposed 1990 Urban Service Area would provide about 4.4 square miles of developable land. This figure was not provided in the plan amendment but is based on Council staff calculations from maps included in the plan amendment. It should also be noted that when ~hese calculations were made by staff, undevelop- able lands such as wetlands were subtracted. Ramsey's proposed zoning, however, might allow development in these wetland areas. This means that Rams~y's proposed Urban Service Area is potentially larger than 4.4 square miles. Thus, Ramsey's proposed Urban Service Area of 4.4 square miles would constitute an expansion of the Metropolitan Urban Service Area in one single municipality that is greater than the expansion required (3 square miles) in the entire North Minneapolis sector. The apparent reason for Ramsay delineating a 4.4 square mile Urban Service Area is that the City is anticipating a significantly larger 1990 population and number of households than that forecasted by the Metropolitan Council. (Table 2) TABL~ 2 Comparison of Metropolitan Council and Ramsay Forecasts 1976 Population (estimate) 1976-90 Population Growth 1990 Population 1976 Households (estimate) 1976 - 90 Household Growth 1990 Households 1970 Employment 1990 Employment Metropolitan Council Ramsay 7,620 7,620 1,380 10,500 9,000 18,120 1,905 1,905 495 3,000* 2,400 4,905 102 Not Given 300 Not Given * Based on Metropolitan.Council assumption of 3.5 persons/household. As noted in the Plan Overview, Ramsay expects about 1,250 new households or some 8,375 persons to locate in its Urban Service Area as well as commercial, industrial and conservation land uses. The issue of population forecasts and related metropolitan sewer system capacity has been discussed with Ramsay d~ring conferences on the City's Preliminary System Statement. The City has been notified that the current forecasts are being re- evaluated and that a revision upwards in the forecast for Ramsay is likely. Re- vised forecasts will be ready for discussion with Ramsay in March or April. They may not be quite as high as the 18,000 residents projected by Ramsay. Ramsay has experienced rapid growth since 1970. One of the major reasons for this has been that relatively inexpensive housing could be built in the City because it had no urban services. Now that Ramsey is planning to provide urban servicds to a portion of the City, that serviced land must compete for development with serviced land in neighboring communities of Anoka, Champlin, Andover, and Coon Rapids. If develop- ment in Ramsay is chanelled to its Urban Service Area and controlled in the Transi- tion Area, it is unlikely that the growth rates of the past few years will be sus- tained. Ramsay will continue to grow, but the rate will likely be slower and dic- tated in part by the City's fiscal capability to expand urban services. Ramsay is justifiably concerned with prolonging the current development moratorium in the proposed Urban Service Area and would like to rezone the area as soon as possible to conform to the plan. Staff feels that the size of the proposed Urban Area will not be significantly out of scale with the revised forecasts and should not be a major concern to the Cohncil, since the timing of sewer extensions, and not the ultimate size of the area, will really influence the amount of development. Therefore, it is incumbent on the City to designate priority development areas by five-year periods within the Urban Service Area before land is rezoned to in- dicate where investments in urban services will be made first. Th~' size of these staged growth areas should be in scale with reasonable growth projections by five- year periods. Also~ before it rezones the urban service area, the City should take another look at soil conditions and try to relate its conservation zones directly to the soils that are unsuitable or have restrictions for urban development. The Anoka County Soil Conservation Service should be able to assist the City in obtaining and interpreting soil maps of Ramsay. Timing The timing of Ramsey's proposed Urban Service Area is inconsistent with the Devel- opment Framework. The Development Framework indicates that part of Ramsey is planned