Agenda - Economic Development Authority - 01/25/2018

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Map 4-3 NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREAS Northstar Stations Et Northstar Corridor Draw Areas — Railroad ❑ 2 4 6 Scale: 1' = 5.54 miles it Copyright 2013 McComb G oup, Ltd. Historic Residential Growth North Oal i Hilis 02/27/13 rtn Building permits for the Metropolitan Area, North Growth Corridor, Northstar Corridor Draw Area, and Northstar cities were examined from 1991 through September 2012, shown in Table 4- 16, to determine household growth trends. Annual Metropolitan Area building permits ranged from 12,060 to 17,679 between 1991 and 1999. As the housing boom unfolded, building permits increased from 17,679 in 1999, peaked at 20,973 in 2003, which was followed by a decline to 12,109 in 2006 when the housing boom ended. Building permits declined by 67 percent from 12,109 in 2006 to 4,028 in 2009 and began a slight recovery to 5,014 units in 2010. Based on nine months experience in 2012, it appears that building permits in 2012 will be significantly higher than recorded in the 2008 to 2011 period. Three periods contained in Table 4-16 reflect a relatively normal period (1991 to 1998); a boom period (1999 to 2006) and a recessionary period (2007 to 2012). Building permit trends in each period provide insight into future residential development trends. North Growth Corridor market share of the Metropolitan Area building permits has averaged 17.1 percent between 1991 and 2012. During the period 1991 to 1998, market share averaged 16.9 percent. Market share average increased to 18.0 percent in the 1999 to 2006 period. This increase was influenced by one year (2005) when market share was 27.1 percent. If 2005 market share is excluded, the average of the other seven years is 16.7 percent, generally consistent with the previous period. During the last four years (2008 through 2011), building permit market share ranged from 11.6 percent in 2008 to 18.6 percent in 2011. Market share has increased each 4-16