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Assuming that the North Growth Corridor will capture 16.5 percent of the increased growth,
<br />similar to the past, the estimated household growth in 2013 would be about 2,581 households.
<br />Table 4-18
<br />SEVEN -COUNTY METROPOLITAN AREA PLUS SHERBURNE COUNTY, NORTH GROWTH CORRIDOR,
<br />NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREA, RAMSEY STATION DRAW AREA, AND RAMSEY
<br />HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS; 2013 TO 2035
<br />North Growth Corridor Ramsey Station
<br />Metropolitan Area Market Northstar Corridor Draw Area
<br />plus Sherburne County Share Draw Area Households Ramsey
<br />Year Households Increase @ 16.5% Percent HIIs Percent HHs Percent HIIs
<br />2013 1,194,278 15,643 2,581 91.0 % 2,349 23.0 % 540 65.0 % 351
<br />2014 1,210,128 15,850 2,615 91.0 2,380 23.0 547 65.0 356
<br />2015 1,226,189 16,061 2,650 91.0 2,412 23.0 555 65.0 361
<br />2016 1,240,637 14,448 2,384 91.0 2,169 23.0 499 65.0 324
<br />2017 1,255,255 14,618 2,412 91.0 2,195 23.0 505 65.0 328
<br />2018 1,270,046 14,791 2,440 91.0 2,221 23.0 511 65.0 332
<br />2019 1,285,011 14,965 2,469 92.0 2,272 23.0 522 65.0 340
<br />2020 1,300,152 15,141 2,498 92.0 2,298 23.0 529 65.0 344
<br />2021 1,313,020 12,868 2,123 92.0 1,953 24.0 469 65.0 305
<br />2022 1,326,015 12,995 2,144 92.0 1,973 24.0 473 65.0 308
<br />2023 1,339,138 13,124 2,165 92.0 1,992 24.0 478 65.0 311
<br />2024 1,352,392 13,253 2,187 92.0 2,012 24.0 483 65.0 314
<br />2025 1,365,777 13,385 2,208 92.0 2,032 24.0 488 65.0 317
<br />2026 1,378,099 12,322 2,033 92.0 1,870 25.0 468 65.0 304
<br />2027 1,390,532 12,433 2,051 92.0 1,887 25.0 472 65.0 307
<br />2028 1,403,077 12,545 2,070 92.0 1,904 25.0 476 65.0 309
<br />2029 1,415,736 12,659 2,089 92.0 1,922 25.0 480 65.0 312
<br />2030 1,428,508 12,773 2,108 92.0 1,939 25.0 485 65.0 315
<br />2031 1,440,141 11,632 1,919 92.0 1,766 25.0 441 65.0 287
<br />2032 1,451,868 11,727 1,935 92.0 1,780 25.0 445 65.0 289
<br />2033 1,463,690 11,823 1,951 92.0 1,795 25.0 449 65.0 292
<br />2034 1,475,609 11,919 1,967 92.0 1,809 25.0 452 65.0 294
<br />2035 1,487,625 12,016 1,983 92.0 1,824 25.0 456 65.0 296
<br />Total 308,990 50,983 46,754 11,223 7,295
<br />Source: McComb Group,Ltd.
<br />The Northstar Corridor Draw Area segment of the North Growth Corridor has maintained a
<br />relatively stable share of North Growth Corridor households, averaging 90.9 percent over the
<br />past 20 years. In the next six years, 2013 to 2018, Northstar Corridor Draw Area market share is
<br />estimated at 91.0 percent, increasing to 92.0 percent in 2019 and beyond. Northstar cities market
<br />share of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has been declining due to slowing development in the
<br />older communities of Anoka, Coon Rapids, and Fridley. Each of these cities is actively seeking
<br />to encourage new housing in their respective station areas, which will create the potential for
<br />increased market share.
<br />The Ramsey Station Draw Area market share of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area is estimated
<br />to increase from 23.0 percent of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area households in 2013 through
<br />2020 to 24.0 percent in 2021 through 2025, and 25.0 percent for the following 10-year period.
<br />Ramsey's stabilized market share of Ramsey Station Draw Area demand is estimated at 65
<br />percent from 2013 to 2035. This is an estimated 351 households in 2013, increasing to 361 in
<br />2015, and then fluctuating up and down throughout the 20 year period to 296 in 2035 as
<br />household growth slows in the Metropolitan Area. These household growth forecasts assume
<br />4-22
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