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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Estimated Demand for Market Rate Active Adult Senior Housing Table HD-2 presents our demand calculations for market rate active adult senior housing in Ramsey in 2019 and 2024. In order to determine demand for active adult senior housing, the potential market is reduced to those households that are both age and income qualified. The age -qualified market is de- fined as seniors age 55 and older, although active adult living projects will primarily attract sen- iors age 65 and older. We calculate that the minimum income needed to afford monthly rents is $35,000 or more plus homeowner households with incomes between $25,000 and $34,999 who would be able to supplement their incomes with the proceeds from a home sale. We estimate the number of age/income-qualified senior households in the Ramsey in 2019 to be 3,226 households. Adjusting to include appropriate long-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of house- holds age 55 to 64, about 8.5% of households age 65 to 74, and 15% of households age 75 and over) results in a market rate demand potential for 168 active adult senior rental units in 2019. Some additional demand will come from outside the Ramsey. We estimate that 25% of the long-term demand for active adult senior housing will be generated by seniors currently resid- ing outside the Ramsey. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children living in the Ramsey area, individuals who live just outside of Ramsey and have an orientation to the area, as well as former residents who desire to return. Together, the demand from Ramsey seniors and demand from seniors who would relocate to Ramsey results in a demand for 224 market rate active adult units in 2019. Active adult demand in Ramsey is apportioned between ownership and rental housing. Based on the age distribution, homeownership rates and current product available in Ramsey, we pro- ject that 25% of Ramsey's demand will be for adult ownership housing (56 units) and 75% will be for rental housing (168 units). Next, we subtract existing competitive market rate units (minus a vacancy factor of 5% to allow for sufficient consumer choice and turnover) from the owner and rental demand. Subtracting the existing competitive market rate units results in total demand potential for 56 adult owner - occupied units and 120 active adult rental units. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 128