Agenda - Council - 04/13/2021 - Laserfiche WebLink

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peak hours. Based on ITE's recommendation to use local data when available, the trip generation based on local data was utilized in our analysis. Furthermore, the local data presents a more accurate representation of the proposed land uses as ITE no longer has detached townhome data while the local data does. A trip distribution pattern was developed for the generated traffic going to and from the proposed development. This pattern is based on the existing traffic volumes, site access, and access to the regional transportation system. The general trip distribution pattern for this study is: i. 44% of the generated traffic to/from the west on Highway 10. ii. 11% of the generated traffic to/from the north on Armstrong Boulevard. i i i. 44% of the generated traffic to/from the east on Highway 10. iv. 1% percent of the generated traffic to/from the south on Riverdale Drive. Traffic generated by the site development was assigned to the area roadways per this distribution pattern. b. Non -site Traffic Forecasting The impacts of the proposed development are studied in 2022 and 2040. To forecast future traffic volumes in the study area outside of the proposed development's traffic, specific other developments around the site and the general growth in traffic are considered. Several sources were considered to determine general background growth in the area, including: • Historic traffic data on the study roadways. • 2040 forecast volumes from the 2040 Comprehensive Plan. • Generic growth factor for the County as developed by MnDOT's County Growth Projection Factors. • Previous traffic studies in the surrounding area. Based on this information, a growth rate of approximately 2.0% per year was calculated. This growth rate was applied to all movements in the study network except for those accessing the development, since those movements will only be increased with the development's forecast trip generation. Applying this background growth rate to the existing traffic volumes established the 2022 and 2040 No -Build forecasts. c. Total Traffic Traffic forecasts were developed for the 2022 and 2040 scenarios by adding the traffic generated by the proposed development to the non -site forecast volumes. The resultant 2022 and 2040 peak hour forecasts are shown in Figures 2 through 4 in the Appendix. Traffic Impact Study 6 Riverstone South Development '#= Spak