Agenda - Council Work Session - 10/12/2021

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Acknowledgments: SRF Consulting Group, Inc. HaiFeng Transportation Engineering (HFTE) Inc. To: Jennifer Wiltgen Minnesota Department of Transportation From: Paul Morris, PE, SRF Consulting Group, Inc. Haifeng Xiao, PE, PTOE, HFTE Inc. Date: June 10, 2021 Subject: Northwest Metro Mississippi River Crossing Feasibility Analysis: Forecasting Technical Memorandum Introduction This memorandum documents the assumptions for the validation of the travel demand model and the process of developing future year traffic forecasts for the Northwest Metro Mississippi River Crossing Feasibility Analysis. The regional Activity Based Model (ABM), which was developed and has been maintained by the Metropolitan Council, will be used to evaluate existing and future conditions. The existing year for the model has been updated to the year 2018 (from 2014) due to newly available socioeconomic data for the year 2018. Future year (2040) forecasts were developed to evaluate future congestion and potential improvements. This memorandum presents assumptions and methods used to develop the existing year model and year 2040 forecasts. Travel demand models provide an estimation of traffic forecasts that include many future year assumptions. However, with uncertainty regarding future -year conditions, the model results should be considered estimates with some margin of error. As a general guideline, MnDOT considers long-range forecasts to have a precision of approximately ± 15 percent. Decision makers and designers should be aware of the uncertainty in long-range forecasts and whether that margin of error would affect outcomes or the recommended improvements. The forecast development process documented in this memorandum follow traditional planning approaches used in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. These assumptions were established prior to the COVID-19 global pandemic. Specifically, daily activity patterns undertaken by travelers on the regional transportation system reflect data collected through the Metropolitan Council's Travel Behavior Inventory (TBI). Changes in travel behavior during the pandemic, such as increased telework and home delivery services, have insufficient data to be incorporated into modeling processes at this time. These trends should continue to be monitored to understand the extent to which travel demand will be impacted into the future.