Agenda - Council Work Session - 10/12/2021

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Jennifer Wiltgen Minnesota Department of Transportation Table 2: Model Adjustment Process June 25, 2021 Page 8 Condition Implications of Condition Method Used Future Volume 3 High model growth may cause the ratio method to result in unreasonably high adjusted volumes. Difference Method (adjustment based on numeric count -model difference) > Base Volume Base Count 1.5 A large underestimation by the model in the base year may cause the ratio method to result in unreasonably high adjusted volumes. Difference Method Base Volume > Base Volume 1.5 A large overestimation by the model in the base year may cause the ratio method to result in unreasonably low adjusted volumes. Difference Method > Base Count All Other Cases The average method is used by default for link volume adjustments. The difference method is used only in cases where the model exhibits high levels of variation or growth. g Average Method (adjustment using average of difference and percent difference) Source: NCHRP 255: Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design Model Results Year 2040 No Build The year 2040 No Build daily forecasts are shown in Figure 1 in the appendix. The average percent volume growth on study area highways between 2018 and 2040 is 22 percent. Roadway segments with the highest growth are TH 252 between 73rd Avenue and Brookdale Drive, increasing from 53,000 to 123,300 and on TH 610 between TH 252 and TH 47, increasing from 102,000 to 124,600. The total volume crossing the Mississippi River on the three bridges in the study area (TH 101, US 169, and TH 610) is expected to increase from 205,000 to 246,500, representing 20% growth. The river crossing with the highest growth in TH 610, with an increase of 22,600 vehicles per day (vpd). Year 2040 Concept Scenarios Year 2040 Concept 1 Concept 1 incorporated the following improvements into the year 2040 highway network. • TH 10 lane addition between Round Lake Blvd and Hanson Blvd • TH 10 grade separation improvements between TH 101 and Armstrong Blvd • Diverging diamond conversion of TH 101 / I-94 interchange Daily traffic forecasts for Concept 1 are provided in Figure 4.1 in the appendix. These results show small increases in traffic are attracted to the corridors where improvements are located. Specifically, TH 10 has increases of 400 and 500 vpd associated with the improvements in Coon Rapids and Elk River, respectively. Similarly, an increase of 500 vpd is expected on TH 101 near the I-94 interchange. While these changes show minor increases in traffic are attracted to these facilities, these do not represent major shifts in regional travel patterns.