Agenda - Council Work Session - 10/12/2021

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September 11, 2021 Page 58 2040 Traffic Sensitivity Test The Northwest Metro Mississippi River Crossing Feasibility Analysis included a traffic sensitivity analysis that tested concept effectiveness under different assumptions about future travel behavior. The purpose of the traffic sensitivity analysis was to determine whether concepts developed in Section V: Concept Development remain effective if post COVID-19 telecommuting rates are higher than rates assumed in traditional traffic forecasts. The traffic sensitivity analysis was conducted with a year 2040 traffic forecast that assumed a 20 percent increase in telecommuting. The forecast, which used the region's Activity Based Model (ABM), implemented this assumption by eliminating 20 percent of "work tours". A work tour consists of multiple trip records associated with a work commute. For example, a work tour could include a trip to the coffee shop on the way to work or a trip to the grocery store on the way home. Tours eligible for telecommuting were selected at random and the entire work tour associated with them removed until a 20 percent reduction in work tours was achieved. The year 2040 traffic forecast used in this sensitivity analysis is not a prediction of future travel behavior. Its purpose is to gauge the sensitivity of traffic impacts modeled under traditional forecasting assumptions. Traffic impacts with low sensitivity, those that are modeled under the traditional and sensitivity forecast, are likely to occur under a range of potential futures. 2040 No -Build Scenario Figure 5.0 in Appendix D forecasts 2040 traffic volumes under a no -build scenario with increased telecommuting. On average, this forecast shows five percent fewer trips than the year 2040 forecast developed using traditional telecommuting assumptions. Roadway segments with the largest decrease in ADT are I-94 west of Highway 101 (87,000 to 81,100 vpd), the Highway 101 river crossing (61,600 to 56,000 vpd), and the Highway 610 river crossing (124,600 to 119,200 vpd). The total volume crossing the Mississippi River on the three bridges in the study area is expected to decrease from 246,500 to 231,000 vpd, representing a six percent decrease in volume. Table 13 summarizes the sensitivity of year 2040 no -build congestion to increased telecommuting. It shows that congestion decreases on Highway 10, Highway 101, and Highway 610, but only Highway 610 has a V/C ratio under 1.0. The 2040 no -build traffic forecast with increased telecommuting shows continued congestion on Highway 169 and I-94. These results indicate that northwest metro highways will be congested in year 2040 even if telecommuting levels reflect those seen during the COVD-19 pandemic. Table 13: Sensitivity of 2040 No -Build Congestion to Increased Telecommuting Highway Hwy 10 Segment Coon Rapids 2040 V/C Ratio (traditional telecommuting) Significantly Over Hwy 101 1-94/101 Interchange Significantly Over Hwy 169 Hwy 169 River Crossing Significantly Over Hwy 610 Hwy 169 to Hwy 252 Over Capacity Under Capacity 1-94 East of Hwy 610 Over Capacity Over Capacity 2040 V/C Ratio (increased telecommuting) Over Capacity Over Capacity Significantly Over Northwest Metro Mississippi River Crossing Feasibility Analysis