Agenda - Council - 01/11/2022 - Laserfiche WebLink

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III. NO -BUILD ALTERNATIVE To address the impacts of a development on the surrounding roadway system, it is necessary to predict the traffic that would be present on the roadway system at the time (the design year) of completion of the proposed development, without the inclusion of the proposed development. This is considered the No - Build scenario, and serves as a basis with which to compare Build scenarios. In this study two design years were analyzed 2026, the year after the development is fully built and occupied, and 2040, the current planning year horizon. A. Background Growth Review of the latest City of Ramsey Comprehensive Transportation Plan and Anoka County 2040 Transportation Plan indicate the traffic in the area is expected to increase. Two methods of estimating future conditions were employed in the comprehensive plan, a factor was applied to background conditions, and traffic from Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) was considered. The results show traffic will grow by approximately 2.0 percent per year between now and 2040. That said, the development of this site was considered and included in the TAZ forecast of future traffic on the roadways surrounding the site, accounting for more than 80 percent of the future estimates. To ensure a conservative estimate this study includes a growth factor of 1.0 percent per year added to the existing traffic. It is noted, the growth factor plus the traffic from proposed development exceeds the traffic forecast by Anoka County and the City of Ramsey estimates. Further, this rate is likely conservative as ITE and the Transportation Research Board suggest traffic patterns will permanently change due to the impact of COVID-19 with fewer home to work and work to home trips likely to occur in the future. Figures 5 and 6 illustrate the anticipated 2026 and 2040 No -Build peak hour traffic volumes. Traffic Impact Study Page 11 Sotarra - Trott Brook S2 Traffic Solutions August 10, 2021