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DRAFT 4.1 IMPACTS OF LANDFILL' DEVELOPMENT ON NEARBY REAL ESTATE VALUES The Anoka County Socio-Economic ElS Scoping Decision called for a detailed approach on the possible effects of landfills on residential property values, to be followed by analysis of collected data. 1. Research Objectives Researchers recognize that landowners have general concerns about the effects that a major change in land use may have on the value of existing or anticipated land use near the proposed development site. In related landfill policy studies, Genereux et al. (1985, 198a) have shown that property owners in the vicinity of proposed development sites admit that they do not "adapt well to change of any kind". Nonetheless, specific concerns have been raised about the probable impacts of landfill development on property values and the likelihood that individuals would wish to live or build near an operating site. Most owners of properties in the vicinity of proposed landfill sites have speculated that site development will negatively affect their investments. They anticipate the effects will be both immediate and long-term. Immediate effects are expected to include depressed values caused by association. This theory generally cites a landfill as a "bad element in the neighborhood" which taints the worth of any property associated with it. In the long-term, landowners expect to suffer losses caused by events yet unknown. In this theory, landowners anticipate operational malfunctions at the landfill or failures in regulation which would have direct consequences for neighbors. It is expected that these costs will be real; i.e., cost of new wells. They will also be of a general environmental nature, and cannot be calculated in advance. Still these costs must be factored into estimates of future property values. Landowners with title to properties located within one-quarter mile of potential landfill sites in Andover, Coon Rapids, Oak Grove and Ramsey were interviewed as part of this ElS process in 1987. Property value was addressed in several questionnaire items. Thirty-eight persons responded to questions: 18 in the Ramsey area; 14 in the Oak Grove area; and 6 in the Andover area. All properties owned by respondents were located in the vicinity of once-active, or still active (Ramsey) municipal landfills. See Table 1 for a description of these landfills. In interviews of landowners near the Ramsey County landfills, at least four-fifths of these respondents in each survey area predicted that the building of a proposed landfill would have a negative affect on the value of land they owned nearby. Between one-third and one-half of