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Traffic Forecasts <br />For this study, the Metropolitan Council Regional Activity Based Model (ABM) was used to estimate <br />travel demand and to develop future year daily traffic forecasts. <br />Travel Demand Modeling and Traffic Forecasting Methodology <br />The ABM was developed in 2016 to analyze travel demand and assist planning efforts throughout the <br />Twin Cities region. For this study, the ABM was reviewed to ensure roadway network and current <br />land use assumptions were incorporated. Existing conditions model validation was performed in the <br />study area. <br />Travel demand models provide an estimation of traffic forecasts that include many future year <br />assumptions. However, all travel demand models contain residual error and results should be <br />considered estimates with some margin of error. MnDOT currently considers long-range forecasts to <br />have a precision of +/-15 percent. Decision -makers and designers should be aware of the uncertainty <br />in long-range forecasts and whether that margin of error will affect outcomes of the recommended <br />improvements. <br />Travel Demand Model Assumptions <br />Existing and future year socioeconomic (SE) development and roadway network assumptions were <br />included in the ABM. <br />Socioeconomic Data <br />The development assumptions that were incorporated into the ABM and used for the CSAH 5 traffic <br />study are shown in Table 6. The municipal totals are consistent with the Metropolitan Council's Thrive <br />MSP 2040. <br />Table 6: CSAH 5 Study Area Development Assumptions <br />Year 2018 Year 2040 <br />Municipality <br />Population Households Employment Population Households Employment <br />Andover 32,610 10,532 5,864 39,800 13,500 7,100 <br />Anoka 18,522 7,544 14,593 21,200 8,900 14,400 <br />Elk River 24,891 8,658 11,783 26,900 9,900 11,500 <br />Nowthen 4,703 1,518 693 5,500 2,100 680 <br />Ramsey 26,821 9,226 7,142 39,150 13,500 8,400 <br />10 <br />