Agenda - Planning Commission - 05/04/2006

Home

Buildout Analysis: A Valuable Planning and Hazard Mitigation Tool By Oavid/~. Godschalk, FAICP Anticipatin§ the likely impacts of future development on livability and safety is an on§pin§ cha[len§e for local planners and emergency mana§ers. How can you translate those syr~bois on the future land-use map or the zonin~ map dis- triers [ntu potential impacts on hazard vulner- ability, community livability, and infrastruc- ture capacity? One approach is to conduct a buildout analysis in order to generate a future growth scenario of fuji development. 8ui[dout analysis is a useful tool for ptanners and emergency managers who wish to anticipate the impacts of future develop- ment. Bui[dout analysis looks ahead to the planning hodzon in order to project the amaun. Land location of growth allowed under exist[n~r'commun[ty development policies. Its findings_c_an he used to assess the resuJting impacts and to ask whether current plans, development re~Jlations, and hazard mitiga- tion strategies should be reconsidered. WHAT IS BUILDOUT ANALYSIS? In its basic form, bufldout analysis simply asks; What is likely ~o happe, if the community grows to the fuji extent allowed under present deve[- opment regulations and plans? It says; Let's assume that ail the ~owth permitted under our future land-use plans or zoning comes to pass, then look at the outcome and see if we believe that the resulting development pattern is desir- able or needs to be changed. 8ui[dout analysis may be based on land parcels or zoning districts, in either case, the analysis will be facilitated by the uae of graphic information system (Gl$) maps and overlays. A parcel-based analysis examines each parcel to determine its maximum feasi- ble future development. A zonin~ district analysis looks at the aggre§ate of devel- opable land in each zoning category, based on photo-interpretation of [and use and ignor- ing parce~ boundaries. HOW IS BUILDOUT ANALYSIS USED? The basi~purpose of buildout analysis is to translate technical planning and regulatory materials into a long-range growth picture of scenado that can be understood by local dec[- sion makers to help them evaluate potential impacts and discuss possible alternatives. impacts can be expressed in ten'ns of the number and location of new hou$in~ units, the amount and location of new commercial or industrial square footage, the size of the new population or some pon:ion of it--such as the number of new school-age children, the addi- tio6al gadons per day of water demand, the length of new roads, and the like. To affect or mitigate the im0acts, pianners can explore alternatives such as amendments to the future [and-use plan, zonin~ ordinance, floodplain maps, or environmental protection policies. Local and regional growth managers can use buildout analysis to assess the desirability of future rand-use patterns and the adequacy of infrastructure and capital improvement programs. Jurisdictions with urban growth boundaries can use bui[dout analysis to compare the capacity of desig- nated growth areas with projected popula- tion demands. Emergency managers can use buildout analysis to proiect the vulnerability of future development to natural hazards. Communities concerned about maintaining their quality of life or sustainability can use buildout analysis to construct visions or sce- narios of future conditions. Applications of buildout analysis can be found in a number of jurisdictions. Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, applied buildout analysis in combination with HAZU$ modeling (see sidebar) to proj- ect the impacts of development on fi. pod hazard areas and vulnerability, The state of Massachusetts applied buiJdout analysis to encourage ail of its cities and towns to look to the future and consider policy changes to preserve and enhance their quality of life. Tne Massachusetts Audubon Society applied bui[dout analysis to assess the impacts of sprawl. HAZUS.MH is a powerS[ risk assessment so ftware ~rogram for analyzih~'p°tentfa~l°sses , from floods, hurdcane, wmds, aha ear~nouakes, n HAZU$-MH. current s~entificanct:~n~'- ~-; neenng Knowleoge i~.couoled, wlth me latest Geographic nformatior~$~stems-(6 S]'tech~ HAZUS-MH takes into, accountvariou$ impacts of a hazard event, such as~" , - . a ~nysica[ damage: damage-to res;oent~al and commercia~ buildings, schoo[~, cdticaL '" _. 70 ZONINGPRACTICS 3.06