Agenda - Planning Commission - 05/04/2006

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For example, the composite development map (Figure 3) for the town of 6rear Bardng~on depicts the pattern of future developable land, the land with absolute development constraints, and the {and with partial develop- ment constraints. The map also includes three tabtes: the percentage of land in each zoning district, current demographics and bui[dout projection~,kJ:ompadng buildout values with those from the year t990 and zooo. and sum- mary of bu~Tdout impacts. MASS AUDUBON SPRAWL ANALYSIS The Massachuse~s Audubon Society used buildout analysis and U.S. Census housin~ permit data to illustrate two "s~rawl frontiers." 3~tey found high teve{s of development in areas of relatively Iow bui[dout west of 1-495 and in [ower southwestern Massachusetts. This combination of high r~tea of construction with relatively unbuilt land acts as a Sl3~awl frontier pushing its way west and southeast acrosa the state Isee F~[ure 4). While hi§h construction leve~s on Cape Cod proceed despite a high level of buildout there, this was attributed to ongoing in~l[ and teardown development. CONDUCTING A BUILDOUT ANALYSIS Buildout analysis can be done manually or on a computer. The use of hand-drawn overlays to snow what a landscape could look like and mathematical calculations to tabulate what its resutting population could be is described [n Jeff Lacy's l'ne Manual of guild-Out Analysis. The use of a GIg computer mappin[ program and a computer database and spreadsheetS increases the efficiency and consistency of bui[dout analysis, as described in the Massachusetts buildout program. Localities consider[ns conduct[n§ a buildout analysis need to ask themselves a number of questions. How would they use a buildout analysis? What method is best suited to their needs? What data are available? future problems}; the level of detail needed (e.g., a parcel Ieve( or a zonin§ dis- ir[ct level, only resiqential development or ali development); and the time pedod to be studied {e.g.. complete buitdout when- ever that occurs or the level of bui[dout at some future pedods, such as so- or ao- year increments). For example, Meck[enbul3 County analyzed the areas adjacent to its streams because it was con- cerned with the impact of future develop- ment on flooding. It used parcel-level data, which were needed as inputS to the flood IBuiidout and Sprawl Frontier 2000-27 02 m m / / RelaOon~ip beme~ build~ ~~ / housing m ID(PELTED USE Buildout analyses can be used to assess and amend development regulations, including zoning and subdivision ordi- nances, which may contribute to the poten- tial of future disasters. They can be used to revise a comprehensive plan in order to build consensus on an alternative vision of the future community. They can be used to create a greenprint plan based on an assessment of the potentia[ damage to natu- ral systems from proiected development. The desired use wil~ influence the analy- sis area (e.g., the whole iurisdi~:tion or only a portion where deveiooment is likeiy to cause model and the HAZUS model. It looked at flJ[I buildout under its adopted district plans. SUITABLE METHOD Choosing a suitable method for a bui[dout analysis will involve issues such as the staff, time, and budget available to cam/it out. Buildout analyses can be relatively simpie or very complex. Whether they are done manu- ally with hand-drawn overlays or with a com- puter-based Gig pm~rem will depend upon The U.S. Environmental protection Agency's Green Communities program lays out ZONINGPRACTICE 3.06