Agenda - Planning Commission - 11/07/2013

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There could be a number of factors that have led to the revised forecasts, including previous economic conditions, changes in regional policies, changes to model assumptions and software, etc. Staff has included a number of presentations prepared by the Metropolitan Council as background on demographics and assumptions that framed the initial preparation of the preliminary forecasts. Staff attended a Local Officials Workshop on Tuesday, October 29, 2013 to better understand the policies, assumptions, and technical components that went into the forecast model. Staff has prepared a document to serve as a response. This is a preliminary draft to frame discussion. The discussion this evening is to better understand the policy direction of the City to refine this document. Responses to the preliminary forecasts are due by December 1, 2013. Following that date, the model will be re -calibrated and re -run. At that time, the forecasts will be sent for official comments by local communities. There will be future opportunities to further refine these forecasts. Staff recommends that the City host a process similar to what was used to develop the Future Land Use Map for the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update to help formulate a portion of the City's forecast recommendations (total capacity). This would focus on the mapping exercise that was completed at the end of that process. However, it would be unlikely that this process could be completed by the December 1 deadline. This could be completed during the official comment period, however. The intent of this process is to have the Future Land Use Map inform our response to the Forecasts versus the Forecasts inform our decisions on the Future Land Use Map. During the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update process completed during 2008-2010, a major comment was in regards to the growth forecasts appearing to be too aggressive and not reflective of the true market. Additionally, some participants felt that the forecasts were driving the development of the Future Land Use Map, versus the Future Land Use Map helping to inform the process of developing the forecasts. However, at that time, the City was unable to adjust forecasts as low as originally desired, as the forecasts had already been adopted in advance of the Comprehensive Plan Update process. This is a key factor as to why the City should remain involved in this current forecast development process. The most recent City documents that addressed growth forecasts were the 2012 Comprehensive Sanitary Sewer and Water Studies. These studies acknowledged that the current forecasts would not be experienced due to the economic conditions at that time. These Studies assumed an average, flat -rate household growth of 260 new households per year. This assumption was a simple assumption, using a combination of historical average growth rates and previous comprehensive plan assumptions. In comparison, the preliminary 2040 forecasts would be an average growth rate of 150 households per year. NOTE: Staff is not assuming a linear growth rate; these averages are used for illustrative/comparison purposes only. Additionally, Staff recommends that the City focus equally on population as well as household forecasts. The Preliminary Forecasts appears to be more focused on the number of Households, with Population forecasts to be finalized at a later date, Staff feels it important to set equal important on Population. As the report will note below, several key factors and investments will utilize Population Forecasts in prioritizing goals and investments. Furthermore, Staff recommends that Household Size (persons per household) be addressed and refined based on 2010 Census figures. Finally, the City will be reviewing Employment Forecasts with the EDA as well. Staff will be forwarding information on the three (3) Small Area Plans (background attached) to assist in revising the Employment Forecast. It is noted that, regardless of what the official forecast becomes, the City does have the ability to request a Comprehensive Plan Amendment if actual growth experienced exceeds the forecasted amount. In addition, as noted above, it appears that the Metropolitan Council will honor the total capacity of households, population, and employment from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan (existing). However, if it is going to be the policy of the City that it expects and/or encourages growth at a higher rate than an average of 150 houesholds per year, that the City's Statement of Policy should recommend a change to the preliminary forecasts. There is additional time and process associated with Comprehensive Plan Amendments if the City wants to adjust those in the future. As previously stated, a number of factors will have an impact on future growth. For purposes of this preliminary review, Staff has focused on two (2) major topics that could restrict future growth if left un-addressed: