|
What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
<br />Components of Population Growth, 2000-2040
<br />■ Natural Growth
<br />■ International Migrants
<br />Domestic Migrants
<br />Net domestic migration —between
<br />the Twin Cities region and the rest
<br />of the nation —will be negative,
<br />totaling a loss of 179,000 residents
<br />during 2010-40. This is not a new
<br />trend; US Census data shows out -
<br />migrants leaving the region have
<br />outnumbered new domestic arrivals
<br />during the past decade.
<br />Geographic position and perceived
<br />attractiveness of the Minneapolis -St.
<br />Paul area are challenges to
<br />domestic migration. While the
<br />region's employment and business
<br />opportunities draw international
<br />immigrants, the Twin Cities are less attractive to movers who have other priorities. This trend is projected
<br />to continue into the future unless there is a major change that dramatically alters domestic perceptions of
<br />attractiveness and amenity value.
<br />2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040
<br />Migration and natural population growth together will replenish the Minneapolis -St Paul region's school
<br />enrollments and workforce. The Council forecasts 254,000 additional residents under the age of 25 in the
<br />Minneapolis -St Paul region, up from 965,000 in 2010 to 1,219,000 in 2040, for a 26 percent increase.
<br />These dynamics will balance out the rapid expansion of the region's senior citizen (65 and over)
<br />population.
<br />The senior population in the Twin Cities
<br />area will double between 2010 and
<br />2030 and will continue growing
<br />throughout the projections period, from
<br />307,000 seniors in 2010 to 770,000
<br />seniors in 2040. Between the aging of
<br />Baby Boomers and longer life
<br />expectancies, senior citizens will
<br />become a substantial cohort of the
<br />population in the Minneapolis -St. Paul
<br />area. In 2010, senior citizens were 11
<br />percent of the region's population; in
<br />2040, seniors will be 21 percent of the
<br />population.
<br />Ages 65+
<br />Ages 25-64
<br />Ages 15-24
<br />Ages 0-14
<br />Population by Age, 2010-2040
<br />307,000
<br />1,579,000
<br />461,000
<br />1,644,000
<br />665,000
<br />1,668,000
<br />770,000
<br />1,754,000
<br />384,000 . 441,000 , 475,000 111 515,000
<br />581,000
<br />2010
<br />598,000
<br />2020
<br />639,000
<br />2030
<br />704,000
<br />2040
<br />As the age profile of the population shifts, the mix of households in the Minneapolis -St. Paul area is also
<br />changing. The Council forecasts 1,576,000 households in 2040, an increase of 41 percent from 2010.
<br />Senior citizens are the most significant contributors to household growth as seniors tend to live alone or
<br />with a spouse. Most of the forecasted gain in households (58 percent) is reflected in net growth of one -
<br />person households (up 179,000 over 30 years) and of married couples without children (up 87,000).
<br />2
<br />METROPOLITAN COUNCIL ■ RESEARCH ■ 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH, ST. PAUL, MN 55101-1805 ■ WNW.METRCCDUNCGL.ORG
<br />
|