Agenda - Planning Commission - 11/07/2013

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That being acknowledged, the City believes that the Preliminary Forecasts need slight modification. Based on recent market trends, the City believes that the actual growth rate for the near future may be higher than the preliminary forecasts, but not to the level with the City's 2030 Comprehensive Plan, at least not through the year 2040. Attached to this Preliminary Response is historical Building Permit data for the years 2011-2013. In addition, attached to this Preliminary Response is background on several Small Area Planning initiatives that the City is currently reviewing to include in the 2040 Comprehensive Plan. Please note that the City acknowledges that amendments to the Future Land Use Map for these three (3) areas will likely result in amendments in other geographic areas in order to balance household, population, and employment forecasts. These exercises are intended to better understand the locations of future household, population, and employment growth. These three (3) Small Area Plans are the first step in a multi- step process related to our overall Future Land Use Map. The City would also like to address Population Forecasts. Most notably, the Preliminary Response appear to need a higher degree of focus on Population Forecasts and Household Size (persons per household). The same holds true for our analysis related to Employment Forecasts. As noted in the previous paragraph, background information on three (3) Small Area Plans are attached. Major Growth Factors In addition to a number of factors, Ramsey has identified two (2) major growth factors as it relates to this stage of review; 1) Transportation Capacity and; 2) Water Supply Capacity. Regardless of future growth forecasts, Ramsey finds that it is important to address the regional transportation issues in Ramsey, most notably Highway 10. This system is already operating at Level of Service F. Any comment in support of reduced forecasts is not a reflection that any focus on Highway 10 and Highway 47 improvements should be lost. For some time, Ramsey has been studying an alternative water supply (surface water from the Mississippi River) to address depleting ground water supply. This is not only a benefit to the City, but to the region. Ramsey does not believe this issue should be solved at the local level. Ramsey appreciates the Metropolitan Council's support in addressing this issue on a regional level. Next Steps Ramsey will be considering a public process to reach out to its residents in advance of the Official Comment Period. We appreciate this opportunity to comment early in the process and be part of the development of the forecasts. These comments are simply preliminary. The City of Ramsey needs more time to review the assumptions and methodology to better understand the impacts to Ramsey. Preliminary Response — Preliminary 2040 Forecasts (11/1/13) City of Ramsey 7550 Sunwood Drive NW