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<br />.. <br /> <br />RLK ASSOCIATES, LTD <br />e . .... <br /> <br />TO <br /> <br />4275543 <br /> <br />P.03 <br /> <br />JAN-13-1994 14:28 FROM <br /> <br />....Y" <br />r<if.. <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />METROPOLITAN COUNCIL <br />Mears Park Centre, 230 East Fifth Street, St. Paul, Minnesota 55101 <br />612291-6359 TDD 612 291-0904 <br /> <br />DATE: <br /> <br />January 11. 1994 <br /> <br />TO: <br /> <br />Bob Davis <br /> <br />FROM: <br /> <br />Michael Munson <br /> <br />SUBJECT: <br /> <br />Ramsey forecasts <br /> <br />The Council foreC:lSt an. annual average household growth of about 120 per year for Ramsey in the <br />1990s. Recent high growth trends indicate that this number is likely to be low. We believe a 180 <br />units per year for the remainder of the deca.de would be more appropriate. This may seem sorne\vhat <br />low given recent short-term trends, but we think it is reasonable for the following reasons. <br /> <br />The City of Ramsey is becoming an edge suburb at the periphery of the MUSA. It grew more in the <br />1970s than the 1980s, but that growth ,>vas predominantly exurban, on lc.rge Jots. The exurban gro\\!lh <br />trends slowed throughout the region in the 19805 and so did R::.unseY'5 gro\'vth. In recent years the <br />city's growth has accelerated and been more concentrated in area1s served with sewer. Gro\vth has <br />increased in each year since 1990. <br /> <br />Edge communities are most difficult to forecast. Like most communities, residential growth is <br />cyclical, but the pattern is less clearneach boom tends to exceed the previous boom until a more <br />stable, long-tenn demand level is reached. This demand is generated within an overall metropolitan <br />area context, Since these communities are on. the leading edge of gfo""th, they tend to be most subject <br />to change due to change in metropolitan grQ\Vlh. Regional and national demographic factors have lead <br />the Council to forecast less household growth in the future for the region. The region is projected to <br />add just under 125,000 households in the 19905, compared to 1541000 in the 1980s. Thus Ramsey's <br />tendency as an edge suburb to see gro\"1h accelerate will be tempered by <l slowing regional growth. <br />Any variation in the regional growth is likely to be more strongly felt in places like R<UI1sey. Regubr <br />monitoring and reassessment of forecasts before they are applied for implementation is especially <br />necessary for stich pl~ces. <br /> <br />frcramsy.94 <br /> <br />TOTAL F'. 03 <br />