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JCT-28 S3 11:20 FROM: ~ , e Metr TO:6WS5 8923 PRGE: 0Y04 ~..tI'opoUtaa Caaacu ......""..~,...../IIr'..1len A Growth Strategy for the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area REGIONAL POllCY ASPECTS OF DENSIlY In the context of land use planning, the term density refers to the number of people or households or jobs per geographic uDit-block, subdivision, acre or square mile, for example. A density measure based on "households", as opposed to population, is a bener indicator of the amount of land that the projected future population will need to live on. Moreover, residential development is the largest consumer of land. Therefore, the Metropolitan Council has focused OR- housing densities for much of its growth strategy land use planning. Basically, the Council's regional growth strategy urges a shift from recent trends of large-lot. low..oensity, single-family detached development to earlier suburban development patterns aad densities mat will re11ect the region's changing demographics and provide more life-qcle housing choices for the growing numbers of young people (after 2000) and. aging baby-boomers. However. higher density. per se. is not the goal. but, rathc:~.~_~ achi~ the goaJs at the TegloiW growth strategy:. using land wisely where public Investment bas already been made; preserving agricu1tuIallands and open spac%; restric:ting residential developlDeDl in rural ~ developing concenaatioDS of jobs; improving uansportation altematives~ aDd lowering the r.ne of consumption of raw land for urban purposes. Other important means of achieving these goals include more iDfill and redevelopment of UDder-utilized buds, as well as bener balance in the mix 0{ detached an4 aaac:hed housing. Regional BeDefits of AchimDg Overall Higher Densities More compact development: ./ serves an older population as aging baby boomers show increased preference for housing types other than the traditional single..family home; ./ enables more efficient and coSt effective provision of urban services; ./ suppons public uansponation alternative to the automobile, reducing air pollution and con.setving fuel resources: .; preset\leS agricultura11ands and open space; ./ prot~ the enwoMlent - reducing groUDdwater contamiJJation from widespread use of individual septic systems and avoiding developmem of sensitive natural areas, for instance. Demograpbic laIpacu 00 Housing Ma aDd Deaity A significant demographic shift is expeaed ro ocx:ur between now aDd 2020. The regional growth strategy's call for a clW1ge in current development patterns anti'ipates this demographic shift The major demographic factor affeaing people's preferencelneed for various ~ of housing is age. and enormous changes are going to occur in the age distribution of the region's population (indeed, the nation's population) in the near future. As the graph indicates. the number of 20-29 year- olds, the largest market segment for multi-Dunily housing, will begin to increase steadily after the year 2000. At the same time. the number of SO-S9 year- aids-the "empty-nestcrs"-who, sooner or later, will be leaving their single-family homes, will continue to grow sharply through 20 I S. leading to a bulge in the number of 60-70 year-olds (again. indicating a declining interest in single-family hous:iIlg as members of this age group seck allernatiYe housing options). \ Twin Cltlu Metropoiltan Arell FORECASTS BY AGE 'Ill....... n, .O~ .K._U.... . no .' -', ,- n.n e""ff ......... '00 .. o 10'0 7S 10 U 10 IS 1000 . '0 " .10 ..,....