Ramsey 2040 Comprehensive Plan No Appendices (2)

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74 Roadway Capacity – Traffic Forecasting To determine future roadway capacity needs, year 2040 traffic forecasts were prepared using the Metropolitan Council travel demand model. The 2040 projections were compared against the assumed 2040 roadway network to see where roadway segment capacity deficiencies may result. The 2040 roadway network assumed for this analysis is the same as the current roadway network, as the City and County Capital Improvement Plans (CIPs) do not include any projects that add significant capacity to the roadway network. While the travel demand model is a valuable tool for identifying future traffic based on the proposed land use impacts, it is not meant for use in detailed traffic operations studies. For a more accurate representation of the transportation impacts from specific developments, detailed traffic studies should be conducted to determine the operational impacts on adjacent roadways and intersections. A central concept of travel demand forecasting is the use of Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs). Each forecast study area, in this case, the City of Ramsey, is divided into a series of TAZs. Each TAZ has population, employment, and household data that is used by the model to assign trips to the various network roadways. Figure 19 displays Metropolitan Council TAZs within Ramsey. The results of the Ramsey modeling process are summarized in Figure 20, which displays Metropolitan Council 2040 projected average daily traffic volumes compared to the existing (2012– 2015) traffic volumes. Tables 42 provides a summary of existing and forecasted demographic growth by TAZ for Ramsey through the year 2040. The Ramsey population is forecasted to reach 39,150 by the year 2040, with households and employment increasing by approximately 5,500 and 3,600 respectively. Allocated demographic growth and associated land use was located throughout the community. Higher density residential was generally allocated to the southern portion of the city, with commercial and multi-optional development areas also generally identified within the southern portion of the city, consistent with the Center of Ramsey (COR) land use plan. For more information about the demographic allocation and associated land use forecast, please refer to the Ramsey Land Use Plan in Chapter 2 of the Ramsey Comprehensive Plan.