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Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Ramsey, MN <br />Elderly Waiver Assisted Living Demand <br />The calculation of unmet demand for Elderly Waiver assisted living units is shown in Table 9. <br />The methodology to calculate unmet demand for Elderly Waiver assisted living is the same as <br />for market rate assisted living, with the exception being the income -qualified calculation. The <br />following paragraphs summarize the demand methodology. <br />Like market rate, the primary market for Elderly Waiver assisted living housing is seniors ages <br />75 and over needing assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs). Applying the percentages of <br />seniors unable to perform or having difficulty with ADLs to the senior population in the PMA <br />results in the total age -qualified population needing assistance with ADLs. <br />The income -qualified base is seniors with incomes below $50,000 who are not homeowners. It <br />is estimated that $50,000 is about the maximum income to qualify for the program with a <br />spenddown. About 32% of the senior population in the PMA is income -qualified for Elderly <br />Waiver assisted living housing in 2025. <br />An estimated 40% of the age/income-qualified market needing assistance with daily living will <br />choose assisted living housing. Applying a penetration rate of 40% to the age/income-qualified <br />base needing assistance results in demand for 46 Elderly Waiver units in the PMA in 2025. <br />Seniors who currently reside outside the PMA will generate an estimated 30% of the demand <br />for assisted living senior housing — increasing total demand in the PMA to 66 Elderly Waiver <br />units in 2025 growing to 92 units in 2030. <br />The next step in calculating demand is to subtract competitive supply from total PMA demand. <br />A total of 103 competitive units were identified in Table 6. An estimated 15% of the units in the <br />PMA are occupied by Elderly Waiver residents. Subtracting 15% of the units that are estimated <br />to be Elderly Waiver, minus a 5% vacancy factor, from total demand results unmet demand for <br />51 units in the PMA in 2025, growing to 77 units in 2030. <br />It is estimated that the Site in Ramsey can capture 60% of the unmet demand potential in the <br />PMA. This results in unmet demand on the Site for 31 Elderly Waiver assisted living units in <br />2025 increasing to 46 units in 2030. <br />Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. <br />Page 18 <br />November 5, 2025 <br />