Agenda - Council Work Session - 11/24/2009

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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections Table D-l presents population and household growth trends for the PMA and SMA from 1990 to 2020. The data from 1990 and 2000 is from the U.S. Census. The 2009 estimates were made by Maxfield Research based on residential construction trends, our knowledge of the slowdown of growth due to the recession and 2008 estimates supplied by Metropolitan Council. The 2010 and 2020 projections are based on information supplied by Metropolitan Council with adjustments made by Maxfield Research Inc. to account for the impact on household growth due to the cur- rent recession. The following points summarize principle findings from Table D-l. · The Market Area experienced strong growth in the 1990s with the addition of +40,940 peo- ple and +17,970 households. Ofthe total population growth in the Market Area, approxi- mately half occurred in the PMA at a rate of +39.7% and halfin the SMA at a rate of +18.4%. The PMA is expected to continue to see higher growth rates than the SMA due to the greater supply of land available for development. · Ramsey is estimated to have a 2009 population of23,670 and is expected to reach a popula- tion of23,900 by 2010. Growth during the 2000s is projected to be 5,400 people and nearly 2,100 households. Most of this growth occurred during the middle of t~e 2000s. · Most ofthe communities in the SMA are nearly fully-developed with less land remaining for new. development. We expect that there will be some pullback to communities that are closer to larger employment concentrations as households become more conscious of commute times and higher commuting costs. Access to public transit and lower housing costs have al- ready created some additional demand for housing in third-tier developing communities. · In 2000, the combined Market Area totaled about 202,450 people and 70,500 households. While the Market Area experienced strong growth earlier this decade, the slowdown in the housing market and economic recession has significantly impacted the amount of growth that will be realized in the Market Area by 2010. Metropolitan Council forecasts a total popula- tion base in excess of251,000 people by 2010, but it is likely that the Market Area will reach only 236,245 people by the end of the current decade. The population and household growth figures in the table have been adjusted to account for these revised projections. · Although the total population and household base will be lower than originally forecast for 2010, numerical growth has been held constant between 2010 and 2020. We believe that most of the growth will be weighted toward the second half of the 201 Os as the economic re- covery is projected to be very gradual. · Since households represent occupied housing units, household growth over the next decade translates to the need for 15,190 new housing units in the Market Area, of which 60% (ap- proximately 8,990 units) will be needed in the Primary Market Area. Specifically, growth of 5,300 households between 2010 and 2020 in Ramsey will drive demand for new housing products to accommodate household growth. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.