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The second factor has to do with our actual Northstar experience. Once we have some operating <br />experience with Northstar, we will be updating our model to reflect actual ridership numbers. We expect <br />to complete this modification as early as 2011, which may benefit Ramsey's ridership numbers. This <br />approach was done after the startup of Hiawatha and had a significant impact on the ridership estimates <br />now being used for Central Corridor. <br />Adequate parking is another prerequisite to getting a rail station. While building out the 200 CMAQ <br />parking spaces could help, the City would seem to have several options regarding parking: <br />1. In anticipation of attracting a new business to Ramsey Town Center that would use all 590 <br />structured parking spaces currently available, the City could elect to build 200 additional spaces <br />for transit with the current CMAQ capital grant. <br />2. The City could request that TAB extend the sunset date of the current CMAQ capital grant to <br />March 31, 2011, or to swap the year of implementation with another project presently <br />programmed for 2011 or later (assuming such a project can be identified) and allow time for both <br />ridership market and better estimates to be developed. <br />3. The City could return the CMAQ funds, and re-apply once ridership market and better estimates <br />have been developed. <br />4. The City could return CMAQ funds, and designate an appropriate portion of the existing parking <br />facility to transit or commuter rail use. If the remaining available parking capacity does not meet <br />a prospective business developer's needs, the developer could be required by the City to provide <br />the appropriate parking, as is common practice. <br />If the City elects to use the current CMAQ funds to build 200 parking spaces, one of two actions needs to <br />happen: (1) Build spaces as identified in the CMAQ grant for the purpose of bus service, and continue <br />operating a bus route until a commuter rail station is constructed and rail service replaces the bus service, <br />or (2) request a "scope change" and a TIP amendment from TAB to designate these spaces for commuter <br />rail customers rather than bus, as was identified in the application. Because the CMAQ benefit is realized <br />through transit service to aCMAQ-funded facility, the assurance and timing of commuter rail service <br />start-up may be a factor in TAB's analysis. <br />The City has also raised questions about continuation of the bus service. More specifically, we've been <br />asked how continuing or terminating the bus service would impact the ridership analysis for a rail station. <br />Unfortunately, it is unclear whether continuing the Route 856 bus service will enhance or diminish the <br />modeled ridership for a Ramsey Commuter Rail Station. Some of the key factors that influence the model <br />are transit travel time, frequency, fare and mode (rail vs. bus). Route 856 takes 40 minutes to travel non- <br />stop between Ramsey and downtown. Northstar commuter rail would potentially take the same time. A <br />lower fare on the bus would make the bus more attractive than commuter rail, but the commuter rail mode <br />and higher number of trips would improve the Northstar attractiveness. Actual transit ridership is also a <br />factor in future forecasts. If actual ridership is higher than previously modeled, this factor will favor a <br />higher number of transit riders forecast for the corridor. Lower actual ridership would have the opposite <br />effect. <br />Continuing or terminating the bus service is the City's decision. Ridership modeling is complicated and <br />we invite interested staff for a technical discussion on how ridership on this bus route would be factored <br />in the long term ridership forecast. <br />2 <br />