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methodologies were used to project the number of registered aircraft in the Twin Cities metropolitan area; the results aze shown in Table II-1. Analysis of historical per capita ownership ratios revealed that these ratios were relatively constant at approximately 0.00129 aircraft per person in the metropolitan azea during the years 1984 through 1987. The number of registered aircraft in the metropolitan azea decreased is 1988, and the per capita ratio declined as well. In projecting registered aircraft under the per capita ownership methodology, it was assumed that the resurgence in general aviation activity projected by the FAA would drive the per capita ownership ratio back to its previous stable level by 2008. This results in a 2008 projection of 3,327 registered aircraft in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan azea (see Table II-2). Results of the mazket shaze methodology are displayed in Table II-3. As shown, the metropolitan area's share of U.S. active general aviation aircraft has fluctuated between a high of 1.31 percent in 1986 and a low of 1.18 percent in 1982. During this same period, the number of U.S. active general aviation aircraft also fluctuated between a low of 209,700 is 1983 and a high of 220,900 is 1985. The FAA projects a future resurgence in the number of active general aviation aircraft. As the nationwide general aviation market improves, so should the Twin Cities reliever system. Therefore, the metropolitan area's shaze of U.S. active general aviation aircraft was gradually increased throughout the projection period, resulting in a 2008 share of 1.31 percent, and a total of 2,964 registered aircraft. Fundamental changes in the character of general aviation limit the usefulness of projection techniques that rely on regression and historical wend analysis. Although both independent and dependent variables have shown a generally increasing trend in recent years, the dependent variable has shown more volatility. As a result, the correlation between the independent and dependent variables for both techniques (socioeconomic regression and trend analysis) is weak. Utilization of this methodology could result in misleading projections. II-4