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• • possible to quantify (to measure the quantity of) this tendency or trend and derive forecasts by extra- polating the relation into the future. b. Surveys of Anticipations or Expecta- tions. The survey approach is based on the premise that future trends are known to those people who will be primarily responsible in establishing those trends. Although an informative method, it is not nearly as simple and as rational as it sounds. Surveys are usually expensive; it is difficult to design meaningful questions and obtain reliable answers; and widely varying viewpoints cause additional uncertainty. c. Analytical Forecasts. In this type of ap- proach (which essentially combines diagnosis and pre- diction) explanations are sought of the factors influencing the variable to be forecast, and a rnathe- matical relationship is developed between these factors and the given variable. d. Judgment Forecasts. The judgment method is basically an estimate made by an individual who is closely acquainted with the factors related to the vari- able being forecast. These factors are weighed and evaluated according to the experience and intuition of the analyst. This method permits a broad range of information to be brought to bear on the forecast — national trends, sales reports, political situations, etc. It is especially advantageous when used in conjunction with any of the above methods, where there are a large number of variables for which relatively little data are available, or when intangible factors are expected to play a major role. The resultant forecasts from use of this method alone are the most difficult to defend under dose scrutiny and may be subject to strong bias from the individual involved in the fore- casting process. e. Professional Services. The preparation of forecasts is a complex task and should be accomplished by experienced forecasters. This is especially true for airports serving large metropolitan areas. 23. Forecasts of Aviation Demand. Annual forecasts of airport traffic (for 5-, 10-, and 20-year periods) form the primary basis for determining the requirements for a master plan airport. It is essential to develop activity forecasts by the type of major user categories, i.e., air carrier, scheduled air taxi, general aviation, and military. In the development of the operational activity forecasts, an unconstrained ap- proach is usually the best approach. Forecasts are sometimes expressed in terms of upper and lower limits of estimated aviation demand for given points in time. These upper and lower limits are then plotted against the forecast period so that planners can develop alternative scheduling of improvements proposed in the master plan. The "unconstrained" forecast represents the poten- tial aviation market in which all of the basic factors that tend to create aviation demand are used, without regard to any constraining circumstances (i.e., limited airport expansion capability, airspace, access, etc.) that could affect aviation growth at any specific air- port or location. Using this approach, it is possible to determine the theoretical development needs in ac- cordance with the total demand potential. For an airport serving an exceptionally high activity metro- politan area, however, potential constraints and alter- native methods to reduce them should be considered. There are five major types of operational activity forecasts considered necessary to determine airport requirements. They are listed and described below. a. Enplaning Passengers. Total number of passengers departing on aircraft at an airport, includ- ing originations, stopovers, and transfer passengers. Where applicable, identify domestic and international passengers separately. b. Enplaning Air Cargo. Total tonnage of priority, nonpriority, foreign mail, express, and freight (property other than baggage accompanying passen- gers) departing on aircraft at an airport, including originations, stopovers, and transfer cargo. Where applicable, identify domestic and international cargo separately. c. Aircraft Operations (Movements). Total number of landings (arrivals) and takeoffs (depar- tures) from an airport. There are two types of op- erations —local and itinerant —which should be iden- tified separately. (1) Local Operations. Aircraft which operate in the local traffic pattern or within sight of the tower and are known to be depart- ing for or arriving from flights in local practice areas located within a 20-mile radius of the airport and/or control tower, and aircraft which execute simulated in- strument approaches or low passes at the airport. (2) Itinerant Operations. All aircraft arrivals and departures other than local operations described above. Where applicable, iden- tify domestic and international itinerant operations separately. d. Busy -Hour Operations. Total number of aircraft operations that are expected to occur at an I3