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climatic differences are also important factors. In some cases, alternative modes of transportation may not be available or economically feasible. Moreover, physical and climatic attractions assist in determining focal points for holiday traffic and tourism and help in establishing the demand for air services which they generate. e. Competitive Position. The demand for air service also depends on its present and future ability to compete with alternative modes of transportation. Also, technological advances in aircraft design and in other transportation modes, as well as industrial and marketing processes, can create transportation de- mands which have not previously existed. f. Sociological Factors. The trend towards a more urbanized society, the increasing mobility of the population, rising educational levels, and a shorter work week with the resultant increase in leisure time are also major factors in determining demand for aviation services. g. Political Factors. The granting of new traf- fic rights and routes for international air service will influence the volume of traffic at an airport. Demand for air transport also depends on government actions such as imposition of taxes, fees, and currency restric- tions. In addition, government support of other modes of transportation may result in changes in demand for air transportation services. h. Airport Traffic Data. Finally, in forecasting future airport traffic, historical airport traffic data should be considered. Data should include passenger and air cargo traffic and air carrier, general aviation, and military aircraft movements. 20. Research of Area Forecasts. To develop forecasts for all of the above factors would be a mam- moth undertaking. Such extensive development of forecasts should not be necessary in the preparation of a master plan for an individual airport. Usually forecasts which cover these factors will have been developed as a part of other community planning efforts or from State, regional, or metropolitan area airport system plans. Therefore, the airport master planner should con- duct a research of forecasts which have been developed for the area and adapt and update them to the master plan effort. He should also discuss these forecasts with the planning agencies who were responsible for their development. Because of their experience in developing forecasts for the area to be served by the master plan airport, these forecasters may offer valu- able assistance in the projection of travel demand. 12 State highway departments and urban transporta- tion and metropolitan planning agencies usually have forecast information. State and regional planning offices may have developed forecasts of population, economic activity, and public facility needs. Area forecasts of aeronautical demand will likely have been developed by the Federal Aviation Administration, Air Transport Association, and aeronautically oriented consultants. 21. Forecasting. After the planner has chosen the most important forecast factors for the development of the master plan, he should research related forecast efforts to preclude duplication of effort. Sound forecasting is basically a common-sense analysis of the important factors that account for air transportation demand. Good judgment which stems from a keen analytical ability and a stock of experience is essential in formulating predictions based on inade- quate or inconclusive data. Forecasting, therefore, is not an exact science but the application of judgment which becomes more accurate through practice. Various yardsticks are helpful in evaluating forecasts but they cannot provide exact measures of success. They include: a. Consistency with past trends; b. Comparison of directions of forecasted trends and realization; c. Comparisons of rates of change; d. Percentage deviations of forecasts from actual values; and e. Comparisons of economic indicators. 22. Forecasting Methods. There are many ways in which to forecast future demands, and differ- ent forecasting methods are not necessarily competitive with one another. In some instances one method serves to supplement another. Some methods are applicable primarily to the very near future —a month, quarter, at most a year —while others are best suited for longer range forecasting. What is being fore- casted also narrows the numbers of suitable methods. An appropriate forecasting method can best be se- lected when the various possible approaches are known, including the peculiarities of each. Brief descriptions of the principal forecasting methods are given below to assist the airport master planner in the development of aeronautical activity forecasts. a. Mechanical Extrapolation. The rationale underlying the extrapolation procedure is that some past tendency or trend in the variable (activity or item) being forecasted reflects future trends. It may be