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Chapter 2. 18. General. Airport master plans must be de- veloped on the basis of forecasts. From forecasts, the relationships between demand and the capacity of an airport's various facilities can be established and air- port requirements can be determined. Since forecasts are to be short, intermediate, and long-range (approxi- mately 5, 10, and 20 years) , the planner may also establish a schedule of development for improvements proposed in the master plan. It should be recognized that 20-year forecasts are very approximate in nature. Today's airport crisis can be attributed in part to the inadequacies of past forecasts. They have tended to underestimate aviation demand and to be narrow in scope. Of course, faulty planning can also hinder the proper development of an airport, even when re- liable forecasts are available. And if the improve- ments proposed in a good airport master plan are not implemented, the congestion dilemma at high activity airports continues. The inadequacies of past forecasts raise questions as to what the forecasts should encompass to provide proper guidance for the development of a master plan for the individual airport. Certainly the planner must go beyond the aviation demand forecast, and, in fact, must study carefully the impacts which social, environ- mental, economic, and technical forecasts will have on his airport. He must incorporate these influences in the development of aviation demand forecasts and in the logic of his planning. 13ut this necessity for broad scope analysis of fore- casts does not give the planner license to develop a mass of far-ranging forecasts as a part of the master plan effort. The planner" should first engage in a research of forecasts which exist for the area his air- port is to serve, and then he should develop only those forecasts which are germane to the development of the master plan. The magnitude of development of fore- casts will depend on the size of the community the airport is to serve and on information which may be available from earlier planning efforts such as State, regional, or metropolitan area airport system plans. The paragraphs which follow provide guidance for the scope and design of the forecast study effort and for the preparation of forecasts for the individual FORECASTS airport master plan. It should be kept in mind throughout that forecast coverage should be complete but not superfluous. 19. Forecast Factors. The following factors should be considered in the development of forecasts for the individual airport master plan. a. Demography. The size and structure of the area's population and its potential growth rate are basic factors in creating demand for air transportation services. The existing population 'along with its changing age and educational and occupational dis- tributions can provide a primary index of the potential size of the aviation market and resultant airport em- ployment over short, intermediate, and long-range forecast periods. Demographic factors influence the level of airport traffic and its growth, both in terms of incoming traffic from other states, regions, or cities, and traffic generated by the local or regional popula- tions concerned. b. Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. This is the purchasing power available to residents in any one period of time and, therefore, it is a good indi- cator of average Iiving standards and financial ability to travel. High levels of average personal disposable income provide a strong basis for higher levels of consumer spending, particularly on air travel. c. Economic Activity and Status of Indus- tries. This refers to situations within the area the air- port serves which generate activity in business aviation and air freight traffic. A community's population, size, and economic character affect its air traffic generating potential. Manufacturing and service industries tend to generate greater air transport activity than primary and resource industries, such as mining. Much will depend on established and potential patterns of in- ternal and external trade. In addition, other aviation activities such as agricultural and instructional flying and aircraft sales are included in this factor. d. Geographical Factors. The geographic dis- tribution and distances between populations and com- merce within the area which the airport serves have a direct bearing on the type of transportation services required. The physical characteristics of the Iand and 11