Metropolitan Sytems Information Statement 1989

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The performance measures in Policy 2 provide the flexibility to compare first -stage segments of a proposed light rail transit system with extensions of other corridors. Possible stages should be developed within each corridor so that the regional light rail transit system can be developed to make the most efficient use of resources. The $4.00 per passenger performance evaluation measure represents a maximum threshold under which a corridor should be considered for additional light rail transit study. Its basis is a $2.45 operating subsidy adopted by the Regional Transit Board and Metropolitan Transit Commission in 1986. Regional transit routes that can not meet this subsidy are not considered viable. Because the $2.45 represents a 1986 operating subsidy threshold and not total costs, incremental amounts were added to account for average fare ($0.60), bus capital costs ($0.25 per trip), inflation ($0.34 per trip) and a margin for the uncertainty of forecast estimates (an additional 10 percent, or $0.36 cents per trip). The 10 percent allowance for uncertainty of estimates is included to acknowledge that the sketch planning level of analysis used for county regional railroad plans to date, as well as the Council's Long - Range Transit Analysis, is inherently imprecise. A corridor that is within the $4.00 threshold is afforded an opportunity for more detailed study to see if capital and operating cost and ridership characteristics can be refined to achieve a more cost effective LRT corridor. The $4.00 per passenger threshold should not be interpreted as the point between "good" and "bad" LRT corridors, but as the point where marginal corridors clearly no longer warrant study for implementation by the year 2010. LRT should be implemented first where it will be most cost-effective, which is corridors where it achieves substanttially less than $4.00 per passenger performance. Ridership Implications If effective light rail alignments on the six corridors currently in the plan are selected, overall ridership on the regular -route transit system could be increased by as much as 10 percent, with nearly half of the system ridership using light rail for at least a portion of the passenger's trip. However, if ineffective alignments are selected, then there could be little or no additional transit ridership. It is estimated that, with light rail in the six corridors listed above, the regular -route transit system in the region would carry up to 94 million passengers per year by the year 2010. As many as six million additional riders could be added if all other corridors proposed by county regional railroad authorities as of September 1989 are implemented. Effectiveness in ridership means serving existing riders better as well as attracting new riders from their automobiles. Current transit patrons will account for about 70 to 80 percent of the ridership on a light rail transit line. Without this base of existing riders, it would be difficult to attract enough persons from automobiles in a given corridor to support a light rail line. Markets that will be good light rail markets will already be good bus markets. However, a light rail line that draws its ridership only from existing transit ridership on re-routed bus routes will have little impact on highway congestion, regardless of how many riders it carries. Cost Implications One of the important contributions an effective light rail system can make to the region is the ability to increase transit ridership without increasing the subsidy required to provide transit service. Selection of specific alignments, a primary determinant of capital and operating costs, is currently the responsibility of county regional railroad authorities. Since planning is still being conducted for the six corridors, only general estimates of capital and operating costs can be made. Preliminary estimates indicate that a six corridor system that achieves regional objectives and meets the regional performance criteria can be built at a capital cost of approximately $725 million (1988 dollars) between $750 and $850 million (1989 dollars). The capital cost of all corridors proposed by regional railroad authorities as of September 1989 would be approximately $2 billion. The impact of light rail on operating costs of the remainder of the regular -route system will depend on the operating strategy for light rail transit and, more important, the ability of light rail transit to optimize transit service in a corridor. An effective light rail alignment will permit restructuring of bus