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projections were developed. The methodologies used to develop these projections aze described as follows: Socioeconommc Repression -The socioeconomic regression methodology is based on an assumed causal relationship between particular socioeconomic factors, such as population or personal income, and a particular element of aviation demand. For this methodology, the socioeconomic data are related via regression analysis to historical activity. The resulting set of regression equations, coupled with independent projections of future socioeconomic data, produces a projection of aviation activity. Historicat_ Trend A_nalycic - An historical trend analysis is derived as a function of historical aviation activity as it relates to time. Historical levels of aviation activity are examined and projected via time series analysis, which is a function of simple linear regression analysis where time is the independent variable. Similaz to the socioeconomic regression methodology, the resulting equations aze used as the projection equations. Per capita OwnershiR -The per capita ownership methodology measures the ratio of registered aircraft to the system population. It is similar to the regression analysis with population as the independent variable, but provides added insight that regression can not identify. Regression analysis identifies similar trends in the independent and dependent variables. Per capita analysis can do the same, but can also identify differing trends that are typified by constantly increasing or decreasing market shares. Market Share -The market share methodology calculates historical market shares of aviation activity and projects these shares into future time frames. This projection method reflects demand based on national aviation trends and may include increasing, constant, or decreasing future market shares. A constant mazket share methodology is used by the Federal Aviation Administration to develop its Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs). The second step in the process of projecting registered aircraft was of a judgmental nature. Each of the projections was examined in the context of possible impacts of improved facilities and service, as well as the relationship between regional and national trends. Consideration of these factors, combined with previous experience concerning projections in reliever systems, led to a subjective determination as to the validity of the various projections. The selected projections, as a result, contain all' the desired features of objective and subjective analyses. II-2