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For Airlake, the FAA projected annual operations to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent, while the Reliever System Plan showed only a 2.4 percent annual growth rate. The difference in these growth rates can be accounted for by examining the historical base from which the projections were derived. The FAA projections are based upon a 1986 level of 29,600 operations. In 1987 and 1988, the historical data available for this study show 30.0 and 23.1 percent growth respectively. Therefore, this study based its projection on an actual 1988 level of 64,000 operations. The lower FAA base year level enables a higher growth rate to be used to achieve similar overall end results. In this analysis, Lake Elmo and South St. Paul Municipal airports both are projected to grow at annual rates well above the FAA's growth rate (2.1 percent and 2.8 percent versus 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively). Similar to the case of Airlake, some of the difference can be explained by examining the available historical base. In the case of Lake Elmo, the 1988 operations total had already exceeded the FAAs 2008 projections. This strong growth in recent years supports a stronger growth rate than the one implied in the FAA projections. In the case of South St. Paul, a decrease in annual operations between 1986 and 1988 allowed a high growth rate to be used, so that projected operations might reach a volume similar to the one projected by the FAA. The projections of GA operations at Minneapolis/St. Paul International, as produced for the FAA hub forecasts, shows a more significant decrease than the decreased projected in this analysis. The driving factor behind these decreases, from the FAA perspective appears to be a gradual elimination of local operations, as well as reductions in itinerant operations. While the last two years have shown a decrease in local operations at the airport, a total elimination of local operations does not appear imminent. A shift towards more itinerant operations is probable and the projections in this study reflect that shift as it relates to the projection of a constant number of based aircraft. While some differences do exist in the individual airport projections, the consistency in the total airports' projections supports the reasonableness of the Reliever System Plan prolecUOns. II-11