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in GA activity projected by the FAA would drive the per capita ownership ratio back to its <br />previous stable level by 2008. This results in a 2008 projection of 3,327 registered aircraft <br />in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area (see Table II-3). <br />Results of the mazket share methodology are displayed in Table II-2. As shown, the <br />metropolitan area's shaze of U.S. active general aviation (GA) aircraft has fluctuated <br />between a high of 1.31 percent in 1986 and a low of 1.18 percent in 1982. During this same <br />period, the number of U.S. active GA aircraft also fluctuated between a low of 209,700 in <br />1983 and a high of 220,900 in 1985. In the future, the FAA projects a resurgence in the <br />number of active GA aircraft. As the nationwide GA market improves, so should the Twin <br />Cities reliever system. Therefore, the metropolitan area's share of U.S. active GA aircraft <br />was gradually increased throughout the projection period, resulting in a 2008 share of 1.31 <br />percent, and a total of 2,964 registered aircraft. <br />Fundamental changes in the character of general aviation limit the usefulness of <br />projection techniques that rely on regression and historical trend analysis. Although both <br />independent and dependent variables have shown a generally increasing trend in recent <br />years, the dependent vaziable has shown more volatility. As a result, the correlation <br />between the independent and dependent variables for both techniques (socioeconomic <br />regression and trend analysis) is weak. Utilization of this methodology could result in <br />misleading projections. <br />The remaining methodologies -- per capita ownership and market share -- produce <br />reasonable projections (see Table II-2 and Table II-3). The preferred projection for this <br />analysis was a combination of the two acceptable methodologies. The arithmetic mean of <br />the two projections was used, thereby accounting for the effect of national trends (market <br />share) and regional growth (per capita ownership). The projected registered aircrafr in the <br />metropolitan azea are as follows: <br />II-4 <br />